Energy will play a major role in at least five races that could determine control of the Senate next year.
President Obama’s controversial climate policy is looming large in Ohio and Illinois, where the coal industry still employs thousands, while battle lines are being drawn in Colorado, pitting environmentalists against oil and gas companies over drilling.
{mosads}In New Hampshire, the Republican incumbent, Sen. Kelly Ayotte, is racing to shore up her credibility with green-minded voters, while hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, offshore drilling, and solar power could move a decisive number of voters in the race to replace Sen. Marco Rubio (R) in Florida.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) secured his own reelection and picked up nine seats to gain control of the Senate in 2014 by emphasizing what he called the Democrats’ “war on coal.”
But energy issues may not prove as favorable to Republicans this November, and the party faces the prospect of a larger number of Democrats and independents going to the polls in a presidential year. In the race for the Senate, the GOP is defending seats in blue states Obama carried in 2008 and 2012.
Democrats need to pick up at least four seats and keep control of the White House — or five without the presidency — to win back the Senate majority. And Republicans need to defend 24 seats, while the Democrats only have to worry about 10.
Ohio
Ohio has been viewed as the key to winning the White House since 2004, when President George W. Bush secured his reelection by beating his Democratic opponent, John Kerry, by 2 percentage points in the state.
Since then, the state has trended more liberal. Obama defeated Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) there in 2008 and 2012 without much worry, and Sen. Sherrod Brown, an outspoken liberal, won reelection in the state in 2012 by 5 points.
Both sides will pour money into the battleground state and the race between incumbent Sen. Rob Portman (R) and former Gov. Ted Strickland (D), which will become a referendum on Obama’s policies.
Strategists on both sides are seizing on the impact of Obama’s legacy in Ohio’s coal country — a pivotal swing area.
“In 20 to 25 counties, coal is a backbone of the economy,” said Christian Palich, president of the Ohio Coal Association, a right-leaning group. “It’s going to have a huge role in the election.”
Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton’s March declaration that “we’re going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business” and shift workers to new energy industries will be used against Strickland.
Strickland and his allies will highlight Portman’s multiple votes to repeal or defund ObamaCare, and along with it a special program to make it easier for miners to receive benefits for black-lung disease.
They will also hit Portman for voting for then-House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) budget, which cut the number of coal inspectors working for the Mine Safety and Health Administration.
Portman will counter by tying Strickland to Obama’s clean-air regime, which proved disastrous for Democratic candidates in coal country two years ago.
“We know what Barrack Obama has done to the coal industry over the last seven and a half years. We’ve felt that really hard here in Ohio,” Palich said.
He and his allies argue that Strickland flip-flopped on his previous opposition to strong regulation of emissions while he worked for the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank, in Washington.
As governor, Strickland oversaw the implementation of a stimulus package that gave out more than $80 million in grants to renewable energy initiatives that compete with the coal industry.
But Strickland says wind and solar power are creating new jobs and saving money for consumers.
“As governor, Ted made Ohio a leader in the clean energy industry, helping Ohioans save more than $1 billion on electricity bills and helping to create over 25,000 advanced energy manufacturing jobs,” said Strickland spokesman David Bergstein.
Illinois
The coal industry employs more than 3,000 miners in Illinois, but liberal-leaning voters in the northern part of the state worry about climate change, making coal a potent wedge issue in Obama’s home state, especially in a presidential election year.
Obama’s controversial cap-and-trade proposal to limit carbon emissions was political kryptonite for Democratic candidates in recent elections, but the issue has turned as more and more moderate voters worry about record temperatures.
Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) faces fire from Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) for voting for the American Clean Energy and Security Act in 2009 while serving in the House but later reversing himself by declaring he would not support cap-and-trade in the Senate.
Kirk has also straddled the controversy over Obama’s regulatory push to rein in emissions from coal-fired power plants. He voted in November against a proposal to block Obama’s Clean Power Plan but earlier in 2015 supported an amendment that would have shielded noncompliant states from federal penalties.
“Given that the Duckworth campaign has hit him on his flip-flopping on the Clean Power Plan tells you that they see it as a wage issue. Illinois is still a coal-dependent state, but Kirk is gradually greening up on the environment, and energy in particular,” said Melinda Pierce, legislative director at the Sierra Club.
The League of Conservative Voters gave Kirk low scores in the last Congress — 23 and 20 percent in 2013 and 2014, respectively — but he has tacked to the center in advance of his reelection race. Kirk earned a 40 percent rating in 2015 by voting against a McConnell amendment blocking the EPA’s new standard for power plants and for a proposal to establish a K–12 climate change education grant program.
Kirk is trying to redirect the debate on energy by arguing that national security and its implications for oil and gas production in the Middle East is paramount.
“The most critical issue impacting energy and our economy is national security,” said Kirk spokeswoman Eleni Demertzis.
She says Duckworth’s “dangerous policies,” such as support for resettling Syrian refugees in the United States without more stringent review and for the Iran nuclear deal, destabilize national security.
While Kirk may not want to hurt his standing with moderates in the Chicago area by slamming Duckworth for supporting Obama’s and Clinton’s energy policies, GOP-aligned outside groups will fund ads doing so in Illinois coal country, primarily in Macoupin, Perry, Jackson and Saline counties in the south.
New Hampshire
Like Kirk, Ayotte has scrambled to the left on green issues ahead of the presidential election year. The League of Conservation Voters gave her a 56 percent in 2015, well above her lifetime score of 35 percent.
She voted last year against McConnell’s attempt to reverse Obama’s power plant rules and for an amendment to fund climate education programs in elementary, middle and high schools.
She also voted against an amendment sponsored by Senate Energy Committee Chairwoman Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) to authorize state and local governments to sell and transfer federal lands and against an amendment to expedite drilling applications for federal lands.
Her opponent, Gov. Maggie Hassan (D), is running on her record of fighting climate change and promoting renewable energy production. In 2014, she endorsed a 10-year energy strategy for the state, which included strengthening incentives for clean energy companies and bolstering energy efficiency programs.
Spokesman Aaron Jacobs said Hassan “was pleased that New Hampshire was recently recognized for its efforts, ranking among the top five states in the country for renewable energy.”
New Hampshire is the rare battleground where the Republican is trying to outflank the Democrat on some environmental issues.
Ayotte was the first statewide elected official to come out against a controversial natural gas pipeline that energy company Kinder Morgan wants to build through southern New Hampshire and is hitting her opponent as soft on the issue.
“Unlike Kelly, Gov. Hassan has failed to stand up for New Hampshire residents’ voices on these key energy issues and has even taken campaign donations from Kinder Morgan executives,” said Ayotte spokeswoman Chloe Rockow.
In response, Hassan has ratcheted up pressure on the builders.
“The governor has been very clear that [the Federal Energy Regulatory Committee] and Kinder Morgan must work to address the concerns of affected communities, and that if they cannot do so, she does not believe the project should move forward as
currently proposed,” said Jacobs.
Both candidates are making a play for environmentally conscious voters in the northern part of the state by taking a skeptical approach to plans to build transmission lines to move hydropower from Canada to southern New England.
Ayotte has taken a tougher posture by insisting the Northern Pass project must include the full burying of power lines. Hassan has opted for the gauzier standard that it should protect scenic views and tap “the latest technologies in order to protect what we all love about our state,” according to her spokesman.
Florida
Democrats want to go on offense in Florida by pressing the eventual Republican Senate nominee on fracking and solar energy.
The contours of the race will remain unsettled until the August primary decides the contest between Reps. Patrick Murphy and Alan Grayson for the Democratic nomination and among a field of four viable Republicans for the GOP bid.
The Florida Senate recently rejected a state House-passed bill to open the state to fracking, giving Democrats ammo even though political experts say the likelihood of approving the controversial practice — given the state’s shallow aquifer — is remote.
“There’s been a push to allow fracking in Florida. I think that could get more traction than anything else,” said Thomas Eldon, a Democratic-affiliated pollster. “Fracking concerns in a state that has an aquifer that’s basically a few feet below the ground could pose a big question mark for a GOP candidate. It does not poll well around the state.”
A sharp fight over a solar power ballot initiative has raised the issue’s profile in a way Democrats hope can help them capture Rubio’s seat.
Environmentalists were unsuccessful in keeping off the ballot a proposal linked to billionaire conservative donors Charles and David Koch that would prevent homeowners from selling solar electricity.
Democrats charge that Republican Gov. Rick Scott has failed to tap into what could be a windfall technology for the Sunshine State.
“There’s a disconnect with the governor. This is the Sunshine State, and Rick Scott is not aggressively pursuing solar energy,” said Max Steele, communications director for the state Democratic Party.
Another potential issue for Democrats is the threat of climate change given frequent flooding in Miami linked to rising temperatures.
“That state is underwater once a month. They’re feeling the effects of climate change, and quite directly,” said Pierce, of the Sierra Club.
Offshore drilling is a perpetual issue in Florida. Many residents fear drilling in the eastern Gulf of Mexico could threaten the tourism and beach industry, a concern heightened by BP’s Deepwater Horizon offshore drilling disaster in 2010.
Republicans, however, argue that energy will take a backseat to the broader issue of the economy. They hope to tie Democrats to Obama’s economic record and the slower-than-expected recovery from the 2008 financial crash.
“From the polling I see, people give their opinion [about energy issues], but it’s not at the top of their list. The top of the list remains the economy,” said Alex Patton, a Republican pollster based near Gainesville.
He said the best way to gain traction with energy issues is to couch them “in economic terms, in jobs terms.”
Colorado
Sen. Michael Bennet is the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent, and he’s running hard after his former colleague, Mark Udall (D), was knocked off by Sen. Cory Gardner (R), who in 2014 had strong support from Colorado’s oil and gas industry.
Bennet is viewed as much more of an ally of oil and gas industries than Udall. He voted for construction of the Keystone XL pipeline and supported ending the oil export ban this Congress. Bennet and Udall split on an important vote on the Keystone pipeline in the last Congress.
Bennet has also introduced legislation to expedite liquefied natural gas exports that he says will “help grow Colorado’s natural gas sector” and support local jobs.
But there are several ballot initiatives that could become political landmines for Bennet.
One would require that energy development facilities respect a 2,500-foot setback from a litany of protected spaces. Drilling advocates say it would put most of Weld County, which is home to 22,707 wells, off limits. That’s over 40 percent of the more than 53,000 wells in the state.
Another would give state and local governments authority over fracking limits and moratoriums.
“Colorado has a great history of bipartisan support for this industry,” said Doug Flanders, director of policy and external affairs at the Colorado Oil and Gas Association. “We hope whether you’re a Republican or a Democrat, you’ll come out in opposition to these kind of extreme ballot measures.”
Bennet will have to walk a fine line, balancing oil- and gas-related jobs with the concerns of the state’s many environmentalists and outdoor recreation enthusiasts. He has breathing room because the Republican field is a jumble, with a dozen candidates vying for the nomination, which won’t be decided until June.
Once Republicans pick a candidate to square off against Bennet, he could use fracking as a wedge issue to divide Republicans and independents.
Democrats are hoping to put the Republican candidate on the defensive over drilling and climate change.
“There’s little doubt that environmental and energy issues will be prominent in the Colorado Senate race this year. We’ve heard from public opinion research that one of the top reasons people are moving to our state is because of the access to wide-open spaces and the ability to get out and play,” said Jessica Goad, a spokeswoman for Conservation Colorado.
Environmentalists argue that climate change has lowered precipitation levels, shrinking the snowpack and elevating wildfire dangers. Obama’s Clean Power Plan will figure prominently in that debate.
It is an issue that cuts both ways, as Colorado still has eight mines that produced 23 million tons of coal in 2014.
Environmentalists will push the ballot initiatives limiting energy exploration as a homeowners rights issue, and Bennet will be under pressure to back them.
“One of the biggest environmental issues in our state is oil and gas [exploration],” said Goad. “It’s becoming more potent as oil and gas rigs are moving into suburban communities around Denver. We’ve seen a lot of discussion and nervousness.”