Costs associated with carbon emissions three times federal estimate: study

The social cost of carbon is significantly higher than the federal estimate, according to a study published Thursday in the journal Nature. 

Researchers put the financial toll associated with projected future carbon emissions at $185 per ton of carbon pollution added to the atmosphere, more than three times the federal government’s figure of $51.

They arrived at the conclusion in part by using a lower discount rate, or the cost-benefit analysis of reducing emissions now versus the future impacts of inaction. Lower discount rates result in higher estimates for the price of inaction. 

“Our estimate, which draws on recent advances in the scientific and economic literature, shows that we are vastly underestimating the harm of each additional ton of carbon dioxide that we release into the atmosphere,” co-author Richard G. Newell, president and CEO of the think tank Resources for the Future, said in a statement.

“The implication is that the benefits of government policies and other actions that reduce global warming pollution are greater than has been assumed.” 

The current federal social cost of carbon estimate is itself the Obama-era estimate. Upon taking office in 2017, the Trump administration dismantled the working group that made the estimate and announced a dramatically smaller estimate of $1 to $7 a ton.

The Biden administration has since restored the $51 estimate but has pledged to update the number. As of September 2022, no updated estimate has been published. The Hill has reached out to the White House for clarity on the timeline for an update. 

The study is the second in as many years to suggest both the Trump and Biden administrations are substantially underestimating the cost.

A July 2021 study published in Nature Communications put the price even higher, at up to $258 per ton, by factoring in estimated excess deaths associated with increased emissions.