Despite efforts to shift toward low-carbon energy, global emissions from energy use will increase through 2050, according to a new analysis.
A new report from the U.S. government found that population and income increases will “offset” the impacts of efficiency and lower carbon intensity.
The report, from the independent Energy Information Administration (EIA), said that while there will be some shift away from fossil fuels, current policies are “not enough” to cut global emissions from energy use.
The burning of fossil fuels releases planet-warming emissions and is the main driver of climate change.
The United Nations’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said the world needs to cut its emissions all the way down to carbon neutrality by 2050 to limit global warming to a level that evades some of the worst impacts of climate change.
China will still be the “primary” source of carbon dioxide emissions through 2050, the EIA said, though its share of emissions is expected to decline. India is expected to be the second-biggest emitter by midcentury, a title the U.S. holds.
China has said it hopes to see its emissions peak by 2030 and reach net zero by 2060. India has said it hopes to be carbon neutral by 2070.
Globally, emissions from the transportation sector’s energy use are expected to grow between 8 percent and 41 percent between 2022 and 2050, while emissions from the industrial sector’s energy use are slated to grow by between 9 and 62 percent.