Equilibrium/Sustainability — Unchecked emissions could destroy marine life

Marine wildlife could disappear over the next few centuries at rates not seen since the extinction of the dinosaurs as the world’s oceans continue to warm due to rising greenhouse gases, according to a new study.

Without a substantial reduction in emissions, species losses from warming and oxygen depletion alone could mirror the sizable impact humans have already had on marine biodiversity by 2100, researchers found in the study published in Science. 

Tropical waters would undergo the most severe biodiversity loss, while polar species are at the highest risk of extinction, the scientists noted. 

“Aggressive and rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are critical for avoiding a major mass extinction of ocean species,” senior author Curtis Deutsch, a geosciences professor at Princeton University, said in a statement.  

But if the world’s nations do succeed in curbing emissions, such a reversal could reduce the risk of extinction by more than 70 percent, according to the study.  

“The silver lining is that the future isn’t written in stone,” lead author and postdoctoral researcher Justin Penn added.  

Welcome to Equilibrium, a newsletter that tracks the growing global battle over the future of sustainability. We’re Saul Elbein and Sharon Udasin. Send us tips and feedback. Subscribe here.

Today we’ll take a look at how warming climate conditions could lead to rising cases of “viral sharing” among species. Then we’ll look at the increasing rates of habitat loss in the world’s forests. 

Climate change could spark next pandemic: study

As the global climate continues to warm, wild animals may be forced to relocate to areas with large human populations — increasing the likelihood of a “viral jump” that could cause the next pandemic, new research shows.

Different mammalian species will encounter one another for the first time during these journeys — called “geographic range shifts” — and in doing so, they will also share thousands of viruses, according to the study, published on Thursday in Nature.  

Harder to track, easier to spread: Such shifts will also pave the way for pathogens like Ebola or coronaviruses to thrive in new areas and in new types of animals, making them harder to track, the authors warned.

• This phenomenon will essentially normalize the risks that people today associate with wildlife trade, according to lead author Colin Carlson, an assistant research professor at Georgetown University Medical Center. 
• “[Live animal markets] aren’t special anymore,” Carlson said in a statement. “In a changing climate, that kind of process will be the reality in nature just about everywhere.” 

How they measured it: To draw their conclusions, the scientists conducted a comprehensive assessment of how climate change will transform the “global mammalian virome” — or the collection of viruses found in mammals. 

They simulated potential hotspots by using geographic models of the mammal virus network and range shift projections for more than 3,000 species, under various climate change and land use scenarios for the year 2070.  

• A chief concern the scientists identified was the possibility that animal habitats will shift disproportionately to the same places that humans inhabit, amplifying the risk of viral spillover. 
• That process, they warned, is already underway in today’s environment, at 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may not be able to thwart these events from unfolding, according to the authors.
  
  

CURRENT CLIMATE PLANS INADEQUATE, RESEARCHERS SAY

Even if the world succeeds in keeping warming this century under 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) — the internationally recognized upper limit for global warming — doing so “will not reduce future viral sharing,” the scientists noted.  

Bats have scientists most concerned: Rising temperatures will have particularly worrisome effects on bats, as these winged mammals can both travel long distances and are responsible for the majority of novel viral sharing, according to the study.  

The scientists projected that the greatest impacts of such viral emergence will occur in Southeast Asia, which they described as “a global hotspot of bat diversity.” 

But there may be a solution: While the authors concluded that climate change is poised to become “the biggest upstream risk factor for disease emergence” — surpassing deforestation, wildlife trade and industrial agriculture — they also pointed to a possible solution to this new predicament.  

That solution, they contended, involves pairing wildlife disease surveillance with real-time studies of environmental change.  

If a Brazilian free-tailed bat finds its way to Appalachia, for example, researchers should be looking into what viruses came along for the ride, according to Carlson.  

Predicting and preventing a future pandemic: “Trying to spot these host jumps in real-time is the only way we’ll be able to prevent this process from leading to more spillovers and more pandemics,” Carlson said. 

“We’re closer to predicting and preventing the next pandemic than ever,” he added.  

To read the full story, please click here.  

US leaders tout public, private sustainability push

A top White House official and various local government leaders on Thursday touted both public and private efforts to pursue sustainability during Day 2 of The Hill’s Sustainability Imperative event.

Brenda Mallory, chair of the White House Commission on Environmental Quality (CEQ), said sustainability is becoming a cross-cutting issue that is driving action among diverse citizens and companies.

“People are aware that their communities are changing in significant ways, that the stream that they … grew up fishing in, it can no longer be counted on for fishing,” she said.

“And that, I think, has really made people more focused on, well, what can I do personally? And also companies — what can we do to position ourselves and make sure that we’re able to continue our operations when things go awry?” 

To Mayor Satya Rhodes-Conway (D) of Madison, Wis., the path to becoming a so-called “city of the future” has required setting specific goals for the community.

“It’s really important to set a goal and then to really look at what are the places in your own functions as a city that you can reduce emissions,” Rhodes-Conway said.

“We as government need to lead by example, if we’re going to ask the rest of our community — individuals, the private sector — to reduce their own emissions.”   

• Madison has set a goal of reaching 100-percent renewable energy sources by 2030 and is already 75 percent of the way there.
• Some particular successes along the way, according to the mayor, have been mapping out the city’s entire watershed, investing in energy efficiency and launching the first electric fire engine in North America. 
• “We’re really pushing on all fronts,” she said.  

Watch recorded conversations with all of the event’s speakers, including Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and actress Sigourney Weaver, on The Hill’s website.

NEW FOSSIL FUEL PROBE

California Attorney General Rob Bonta (D) said Thursday he intends to launch an investigation into the fossil fuel and petrochemical industries for their contribution to global plastic pollution. Bonta also said he intends to subpoena ExxonMobil.
 
“The public has been aggressively deceived by some of the largest and most influential corporations in the world,” Bonta said at a press conference.  

To read the full story, please click here. 

Researchers raise alarm over forest loss

A growth in wildfires and global commodities industries wiped out 11 million hectares of global forest cover in 2021 — approximately the area of the state of Tennessee.

This illustrated a “stubbornly consistent” pattern of forest loss, with tropical forests at particular risk, according to a study from nonprofit Global Forest Watch.

What can be done: National governments and global companies have both demonstrated how deforestation can be halted, researchers say.

• For example, Indonesia has scaled back the massive deforestation caused by its palm oil industry — which joins soy and cattle as a key historical driver of forest loss.
• Palm oil is a key component in E.U.-imported biofuels and a staggering range of consumer goods from cosmetics to chocolates — and an ingredient whose export Indonesia just banned.
• But deforestation for palm oil in Indonesia is now at a 20-year low after five straight years of reductions, according to a study published last month in PLOS One.

A combination of corporate commitments and government action has been key to halting deforestation in Indonesia, the Global Forest Watch study found. 
 
That decline coincides with the implementation of “No Deforestation” commitments by many principal global palm oil importers, researchers noted.

Still, a rise in palm oil prices — now at a 40-year high — may endanger those gains, according to the report. Various other surging commodities prices are also threatening forests, researchers found.

Read the full story and researchers’ tips to curb deforestation here.

Thermal Thursday

Run far or run short, you’ll likely run the same speed: study 

• Humans evolved to run naturally at the most sustainable pace —  the one that burns the least calories — whether they’re running short or long distances, according to a new study in Current Biology. This means that those heading out for races this summer should try cranking some fast music if they want to improve their times, or burn more calories. 

Don’t expect firefighters to put out massive blazes this summer: fire chief 

• The U.S. is facing “another big fire season” this year as high winds and dry vegetation fuel unusually early spring blazes in New Mexico, Colorado and Nebraska — and the public shouldn’t expect firefighters to stop them, as Boulder, Colo. wildland fire chief Brian Oliver told NPR. “We don’t mobilize a force to go turn a hurricane around, right? We get everybody out of the way and we try to come back in and clean up,” he added. 

Waste Management heats up its garbage for fuel 

• Waste Management announced plans on Thursday to invest $825 million in expanding its biogas infrastructure from 2022-2025. With this addition, the company said it will generate enough renewable energy to power the equivalent of 1 million homes. 
  
  

Please visit The Hill’s Sustainability section online for the web version of this newsletter and more stories. We’ll see you tomorrow.

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