Equilibrium & Sustainability

Equilibrium/Sustainability — Preparing for unavoidable floods

Houses on stilts, sacrificial ground floors and a floating garage.

These are some of the tactics homeowners in the Philippines are using in an attempt to adapt to floods and a changing climate, The Washington Post reports.

Such efforts to boost resilience could offer a path forward for those in similarly threatened areas, like the U.S. Gulf.

“It becomes a personal responsibility,” architect Leandro Poco told the Post. “They do not want to evacuate.” 

There are a variety of practical steps residents in the Philippines are taking to adapt to a wetter and more dangerous environment.

Some residents are essentially lifting their houses by building additional floors, so more living space is out of the flood zone, the Post reported. 

Others are encasing the edges of their homes in special coverings to block water, and replacing interior plasterboard with more impervious drywall options.

And one family survived 2020 typhoon floods with their possessions and car intact thanks to an innovative floating garage, according to the Philippine Daily Inquirer. 

Welcome to Equilibrium, a newsletter that tracks the growing global battle over the future of sustainability. We’re Saul Elbein and Sharon Udasin. Send us tips and feedback. Subscribe here.

Today we’ll look at California’s long-term climate plan and why it’s generating ire on all sides. Plus: Why wildfires are surpassing experts’ worst models and why air pollution could help predict death risk.

Contention over California climate plan 

California’s goals of achieving carbon neutrality by 2045 may be among the most ambitious in the world, but Californians themselves are widely dissatisfied with the state’s plans for getting there, The Associated Press reported.

What’s in the disputed plan? The so-called “scoping plan” for reducing greenhouse gas emissions aims to scale back the use of fossil fuels by 91 percent by 2045, while boosting the use of electric cars and renewable energy, CalMatters reported.

Fulfilling these aims won’t be easy: Air board officials projected that the state would need about 30 times more electric vehicles on the road, six times more electric appliances in homes, 60 times more hydrogen supply and four times more wind and solar capacity, CalMatters reported.

Some say it’s not enough: Environmental activists, academics and Californians who live in heavily polluted neighborhoods argued at the hearing that the state’s plans don’t do enough to curb fossil fuel use, according to the AP.  

“How we achieve our climate goals matters as much as when we achieve them, and we need a plan for real zero, not net zero,” said Catherine Garoupa White, a member of the plan’s Environmental Justice Advisory Committee.  

For others, the plans are too much: Labor, business and industry representatives contended that such a transition could raise prices and harm workers, according to the AP. 

George Peppas, president of a chamber of commerce group south of Los Angeles, warned that the plan’s shift away from gas-fueled cars would reduce gas tax revenue that is critical to road maintenance, the AP reported. 

Pollution exposure may help predict death risk: study

Environmental factors such as air pollution could help predict people’s chances of dying — particularly from conditions like heart attack and stroke, a new study has found.

Exposure to above-average levels of outdoor air pollution increased risk of death by 20 percent and increased risk of death from cardiovascular disease specifically by 17 percent, in a survey published in PLoS One on Friday.

Rural village health: To arrive at these figures, researchers from the NYU Grossman School of Medicine and the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai combed through personal and environmental health data from 50,045 rural villagers in northeast Iran, beginning in 2004.  

Mapping out risk factors. The researchers mapped out eight environmental risk factors using data from NASA and geographical information systems technologies: 

Not all had the same predictive impact: They found that unlike air pollution, some of the other factors included in the analysis — such as population density, nighttime light and neighborhood income levels — did not independently predict risk of death, the authors said in an accompanying statement.  

Distance mattered: Residents incurred a 1 percent increased risk of death for every 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) of distance from cardiac catheterization labs, which are capable of unblocking arteries, the study found.

In Golestan, Iran, the largely-rural region where the survey took place, most residents live more than 50 miles away from such facilities, the authors noted.

Living within about 0.06 miles of a small roadway and 0.25 of a large highway was linked to a 13-percent increased risk in all-cause mortality, according to the study.

Mitigating impact: “These results illustrate a new opportunity for health policymakers to reduce the burden of disease in their communities,” lead author Michael Hadley, of Mount Sinai, said in a statement. 

Such opportunities should focus on “mitigating the impact of environmental risk factors like air pollution on cardiovascular health,” Hadley added. 

To read the full story, please click here

Wildfire problem worsening faster than expected 

Federal officials say climate change is intensifying droughts, leading to wildfires far worse than experts or models have predicted. 

That is adding to the danger that accompanies one of the U.S. Forest Service’s primary methods of mitigation: the prescribed burn.

That is forcing the agency to use more caution around controlled burns.

Go deeper: The agency laid out its explanation for why the fire escaped and what it is doing to prevent future mistakes in a report released Wednesday. 

Unsettling, unstable conditions: Climate change is leading to conditions on the ground we have never encountered,” Moore said. 

Losing water, losing resilience: In a wetter ecosystem, water evaporating from the landscapes cools it — and in a dry one, drought lets it get hot.

Turning wet logs to firewood: Fire forecasters could once assume that the water in a living tree trunk — or even a dead one — would keep it from catching fire, even during a large blaze, fire ecologist Matthew Hurteau of the University of New Mexico told Equilibrium.

That view has since changed. “A lot more energy stored in large logs and dead trees is available to burn,” Hurteau said, adding that this results in bigger, hotter fires. 

In California’s 2020 Creek Fire, for example, hundreds of thousands of combusting logs powered the formation of a colossal pyrocumulonimbus cloud, NASA reported. 

That meant the emergence of a fire-created storm system that pulls in air, causing it to grow ever larger in a destructive feedback loop. 

STOPPING A MEGA-FIRE

Firefighters facing a dangerous cluster of blazes can win if they use discipline and avoid dividing their resources, Castellnou of the Catalonia fire corps told Equilibrium. 

Heading off a cataclysm: When 307 lightning-sparked fires broke out on the edge of Spain’s Pyrenees, Castellnou’s team realized that 5,000 hectares (about 12,000 acres) were certainly going to burn.

Attacking a big fire while small fires burn behind you is a good way to lose control of a landscape, according to Castellnou.  

“If you just leave small fires to fight bit ones, you’ll have two big fires, then the next day four, then more,” he added.  

To read the full story, please click here.

Follow-up Friday

Taking another look at issues from the week. 

Just a fifth of engineering degrees go to women 

‘Achilles heel in the Arctic’ 

Another option for plant-based plastics 

Please visit The Hill’s Sustainability section online for the web version of this newsletter and more stories. We’ll see you next week.

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