On Thursday evening, the best estimates on jobs data ranged widely between 120,000 to upward of about 170,000.
Heather Boushey, senior economist at the Center for American Progress, is estimating that payrolls will be similar, or slightly less, than last month’s 120,000.
{mosads}Meanwhile, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, who is frequently called to Capitol Hill to testify, expects to see an increase of 140,000 in April, bolstered by a 150,000 increase in private-sector employment with losses of 10,000 across governments.
He expects the jobless rate to hold at 8.2 percent and that the economy and job market will rebound in the spring and fall.
Not quite Champagne worthy, though.
Other reports say that employers added 163,000 jobs in April, while another economist, Aparna Mathur of the American Enterprise Institute, expects that between 120,000 and 140,000 jobs were added last month.
So, while the employers continue to hire, the number is likely to reflect a slowdown from the zippy pace of those warm winter months.
In March, 120,000 jobs were added, a disappointing figure after several months with job growth that averaged better than 200,000 a month.
The hope of economists is that these spring numbers will actually do just that over the next several months and pop back to life, although that 200,000 a month mark may remain out of reach.
The unemployment rate, however, is expected to remain steady, at 8.2 percent for a second straight month.
Maybe April is more of a margarita or craft beer month.
The economy is plugging along but at a rate that Republicans, including GOP presidential hopeful Mitt Romney, say is being held back by President Obama’s economic policies.
In a separate report, employers cut more jobs in April, while the pace of downsizing remained virtually unchanged, a positive sign for the labor market’s recovery.
Businesses announced planned job cuts of 40,559 last month, a 7.1 percent increase from the 37,880 in March, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
April’s cuts were up 11.2 percent from 36,490 the same month a year ago, the lowest monthly total recorded in 2011.
“While some would like to attribute the lack of hiring to uncertainty and regulatory roadblocks, the fact is that demand for goods and services simply has not reached a level that warrants accelerated hiring,” said John Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger.
Meanwhile, on Thursday, first-time claims for unemployment benefits took a nosedive, falling by 27,000 and back to within the healthier range that economists like to see.
Since September, the economy has added more than 1.3 million jobs as hiring accelerated in December.
Despite the spring slowdown, economists aren’t too worried about the economy continuing to add jobs, especially as the expansion eclipses last year’s anemic levels.
Economists in an AP survey released Thursday expects hiring to, at least, be strong enough to push the unemployment rate below 8 percent by Election Day, a potential positive for Obama’s campaign. Two Novembers ago, unemployment was 9.8 percent.
The survey expects job growth to average 177,000 a month from April through June and 189,000 for the rest of the year. In 2011, job growth averaged 158,000 a month.
The AP economists think the economy is finally in a cycle where job growth will remain steady, fueling consumer spending and, in turn, more jobs.
I’ll drink to that.
WHAT ELSE TO WATCH FOR
Focusing on student loans: President Obama will take his campaign on the road, just down the pike a bit, to Arlington, Va., to talk about preventing a doubling of student loan interest rates this summer. The president will speak to juniors and seniors and their parents at Washington-Lee High School as he continues to put pressure on Republicans to agree to the Democratic approach to halt the pending spike on federally subsidized student loans. He’ll be joined by Education Secretary Arne Duncan.
House Republicans have already advanced legislation that would extend the lower rates, paying for it by tapping into funds for a piece of the healthcare reform law.
On Thursday, a coalition of business groups pushed back against a Democratic proposal to pay for lower student loan rates with tax revenue.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, along with roughly three dozen other groups, said the proposed tax-code change from Democrats would make it more confusing and difficult to follow.
Boustany lowers the boom: Rep. Charles Boustany (R-La.), the chairman of the Ways and Means oversight subcommittee, is expressing concern that the General Services Administration essentially asked contractors for kickbacks.
With the GSA already reeling from the recent revelations about its lavish conference habits, Boustany noted the agency may have offered an energy efficiency tax deduction to contractors in exchange for a payment of 19 percent of the incentive’s worth.
“Requiring a cash payment in exchange for a tax deduction is a kickback, pure and simple,” Boustany said in a statement. “We must ensure that this tax deduction is being used for its intended purpose and not being sold to line some government slush fund.”
The Associated Press reports that GSA officials say that no contractors took them up on their offer, which was out there for seven months. The agency also said it believed its efforts were legal, citing a law that allows officials to invest proceeds from energy savings into a building management fund. But tax experts said the proposed arrangement was unusual, at the very least.
Wrap it up: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wrap up U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Beijing. So far, the substance of the talks has been overshadowed by the political firestorm over the U.S. handling of blind dissident lawyer Chen Guangcheng.
LOOSE CHANGE
Budget showdown brewing: House Democrats on Thursday were gearing up for a showdown with the GOP over the budget set for Monday.
The House Budget committee will be marking up $261 billion in cuts to the budget and ranking member Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) released a report excoriating the bill as an attack on the poor.
The bill compiles the recommendations of six House committee to replace the first year of automatic spending cuts triggered under the August debt deal by the failure of the debt supercommittee.
It features cuts to food stamps, Medicaid and Obama’s financial reform law.
“Next week Democrats will continue to draw a strong contrast between the lopsided Republican plan to protect tax breaks for powerful special interests at the expense of the rest of America, and the Democratic plan that takes a balanced approach to deficit reduction with shared responsibility and shared prosperity,” Van Hollen said in statement.
He told The Hill on Thursday that Democrats will offer a series of motions to underscore the contrast but said Democrats are still mulling what amendments they will offer. He would not say whether a comprehensive amendment replacing the $109 billion sequester will be among the amendments.
The GOP has argued that Democrats do not have a specific alternative to their plans, but the White House says adopting Obama’s budget proposal, which contains tax increases on the wealthy and smaller spending cuts, is the way to go.
The House budget bill is being taken up as a reconciliation measure. Since the Senate is not doing a budget resolution, as a matter of procedure it will die after the House approves it. The bill is best seen as a marker for possible budget talks during the lame-duck session.
WHAT YOU MIGHT HAVE MISSED
— Cantor, Hoyer close to Ex-Im Bank deal
— House Republicans urge housing regulator to remain steadfast on principal reductions
— House Republicans pressure Cordray for details on consumer bureau budget
— Dem tax-writer targets GOP on income inequality
— Feingold rips Pelosi for willingness to consider entitlement cuts
— Washington veterans from both parties want revenue increase in tax deal
—Time is running short to add countries to Asia-Pacific trade talks
— GOP lawmaker wants independent counsel to take over MF Global probe
— Service sector expands at a slower pace in April
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