Poll: Consumers expected to pick up holiday spending

Consumers plan to pick up their holiday spending this year, though it’s not expected to eclipse pre-recession levels, according to a new poll out Monday.

Gallup’s first gauge of seasonal spending shows that Americans say they will spend an average of $781 on Christmas gifts, up from $704 in 2013, in what could be the best shopping season since 2007. 

{mosads}Before the economic downturn started in December 2007, consumers spent at least $800 on holiday gifts.

After years of restrained spending, consumers are poised to get back to that level.

Still, while the preliminary forecast is positive, consumers could change their minds and raise or lower their spending estimates.

Last year, the average spending estimate fell by about $80 between October and November, and in 2008 and 2009, Gallup saw sharp declines in intended spending.

This year’s estimate is nearly the same as what Gallup found in October 2013 before it fell significantly.

The willingness to spend could be boosted by steady jobs growth, which is running above 200,000 a month so far this year.

If Christmas spending intentions hold at the current level into November, Gallup’s model suggests that holiday spending could grow by 3.8 percent or more over last year’s level.

Earlier this month, the National Retail Federation said it expects 4.1 percent growth in retail sales this year.

The relationship between Gallup’s Christmas spending estimates and actual holiday retail sales is complex. But over the past 15 years, the poll has shown that when consumers’ projected holiday spending has been either flat or up slightly, actual sales tend to be fairly strong.

Overall, about 60 percent say they will spend the same amount on gifts this year as in 2013, with 24 percent saying they will spend less, slightly below last year’s estimate.

By comparison, during the financial crisis in 2008, 46 percent of consumers said they would spend less, and that figure held above 30 percent from 2009 to 2011.

The figures are based on an Oct. 12–15 Gallup poll of 1,017 U.S. adults.