Poll: Fewer voters say they’re noticing paycheck increases from tax law

A new Morning Consult/Politico poll released Wednesday found that fewer people were reporting seeing bigger paychecks due to the new tax law than those that did in a survey last month.

The April survey found that 22 percent of registered voters reported seeing paycheck increases, while 55 percent said they hadn’t noticed a bump and 23 percent didn’t know or didn’t have an opinion. When the news outlet asked about paycheck increases in early March, 27 percent said they noticed bigger paychecks, 50 percent said they didn’t and 23 percent didn’t know or didn’t have an opinion.

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The April poll found that Republicans were more likely to say they noticed an increase in their paychecks than Democrats. Thirty-two percent of Republicans said they reported seeing larger paychecks, compared to 15 percent of Democrats and 21 percent of independents.

The sample in the April poll included fewer people who said they were employed in the private sector or government and more retirees and unemployed people, which could impact the results because those who aren’t receiving regular paychecks from an employer may not have any tax withholding.

However, the percentages of private-sector and government employees who said they have noticed bigger paychecks decreased from the March poll to the April poll.

The new tax law, which lowers individual tax rates, has been estimated to give most people a tax cut. In January, the IRS issued guidance updating tax withholding from people’s paychecks to reflect the new law, and employers were directed to start following the guidance by Feb. 15.

But polling has found that most people aren’t reporting seeing an increase in their take-home pay. Republicans say those trends mean that they need to step up their messaging efforts.

The polling comes as Republicans and Democrats are locked in a messaging battle over the tax law.

Republicans are hoping that by touting the tax law, they will be able to keep control of the House and Senate after the midterm elections. But Democrats are arguing that the law mostly benefits wealthy individuals and businesses and have discussed rolling back parts of the law if they do well in the midterms.

April’s Morning Consult/Politico survey also found a small decline in the percentage of registered voters supporting the tax law, and an increase in opposition.

Forty-four percent of registered voters said they support the law, compared to 46 percent in March. Thirty-nine percent of voters polled in the April survey said they opposed the law, while 36 percent said so in March.

The April poll was conducted from April 19 to 23 and the March poll was conducted from March 1 to March 5. Both had samples of 1,993 registered voters and margins of error of plus or minus two percentage points.