More than three-fourths of an influential panel of economists said the U.S. will enter a recession by 2021, according to survey results released Monday by the National Association of Business Economics (NABE).
Of the 281 members of NABE, a leadership and research group for business economists, 77 percent said they believe the U.S. economy will begin to shrink within two years.
The results are the latest sign of concern that a slowdown in global growth will soon weigh down the U.S. economy.
More than half of NABE members said the U.S. economy would begin to retract by 2020, with 42 percent projecting a recession next year and 10 percent predicting one within 2019. {mosads}
One-fourth of NABE members said the next recession would start in 2021, 11 percent said it would start after 2021 and 13 percent did not say when they expected the U.S. economy to pull back.
The U.S. is in its second-longest economic recovery in modern history. The American economy has enjoyed more than 116 consecutive months of expansion since June 2009, and is widely expected to grow throughout 2019.
Even so, there’s growing concern among policymakers that worsening economic turmoil in Europe and China could spur a slowdown in the U.S. While the U.S. labor market and consumer confidence have stayed strong throughout the global slowdown, U.S. exports and retail sales have dipped lower.
Economists widely consider recessions to be normal parts of economic cycles, and policymakers have been on guard for a slowdown for several years. But a retraction within the next two years could have a profound impact on the 2020 election.
President Trump and Republicans have claimed credit for the strong economy, while Democrats say the GOP has used the recovery to boost elites and corporations at the expense of the middle and working classes.
Several declared and expected Democratic challengers to Trump have proposed sweeping plans to raise taxes on the wealthy, boost middle-class tax credits, provide free or low-cost child care, create pre-funded savings accounts and expand financial services offered through the U.S. Postal Service.