China expected to surpass US economy in 2028: analysis

The Chinese economy is expected to surpass that of the U.S. in 2028 — five years earlier than previously forecast — following fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, according to an analysis released Saturday.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said in its World Economic League Table that in dollar amounts, China will surpass previous expectations that predicted it would overtake the U.S. economy in 2033, largely based on the impact of COVID-19.

The group said that not only did China handle the outbreak more effectively than Western nations, but its Western counterparts suffered significant hits to their long-term growth.

“The skilful management of the pandemic and the hits to long term growth in the West mean that China’s relative economic performance has improved. We now think that the Chinese economy in dollar terms will overtake the US economy in 2028, a full 5 years earlier than we thought last year,” the firm said. 

“We expect the trend rate of growth for China to be 5.7% annually from 2021-25 and 4.5% annually from 2026-30 and 3.9% annually from 2031-35,” it added. 

China suffered the coronavirus’s first outbreak in Wuhan and faltered economically before any other country. However, it has rebounded more quickly than the U.S. and Europe, giving it a leg up in a post-pandemic world.

“The Chinese authorities reacted vigorously and as a result the Chinese economy has sustained less economic damage than any other major economy. China is estimated to be likely to have positive GDP growth of 2% in 2020, whereas other major economies are expected to have negative growth for the year,” the report stated. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping remarked in November that it was “entirely possible” for China to double the size of its economy by 2035 under his five-year plan that seeks to modernize Beijing’s brand of socialism.

Fueled by massive population growth, India is also anticipated to be the largest country by 2027 and the third-largest economy by 2030, behind China and the U.S., an indicator of Asia’s burgeoning economic prowess, CEBR found in its report.