Business & Economy

OVERNIGHT FINANCE: Ryan sees fast-track in ‘striking distance’

THE SCENE… EXPORT-IMPORT BANK CHAIRMAN FRED HOCHBERG meeting with senior staffers outside the Banking Committee hearing room in Dirksen earlier today. “Hello, Fred. You ready to get this thing started?” Senate Banking Committee chairman Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) told him in the hallway. “Always,” Hochberg said.

LEGISLATIVE DAYS UNTIL EX-IM’s CHARTER EXPIRES: 12. More in a sec…

{mosads}TOMORROW STARTS TONIGHT: RYAN SAYS HE’S IN ‘STRIKING DISTANCE’ ON BIPARTISAN TRADE DEAL. Scott Wong for the hometown paper: “Backers of a major trade bill are ‘within striking distance’ of securing enough votes to pass the bill in the House, Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) said Thursday.

— RYAN: “We had a very good week. We’re not quite there yet but we are picking up votes every day… The undecideds are falling the right way, so we are getting within striking distance.” STORY: http://bit.ly/1SZ9bMv

— REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-Calif.), top House Democrat: “Every time we had a bill that came to the floor when I was Speaker he said it was a test of my leadership. It’s a test of his… I have confidence in him… I believe he can deliver 200 of his members, but it’s not my responsibility.” Wong and Mike Lillis: http://bit.ly/1QuoDfD

THIS IS OVERNIGHT FINANCE, and tomorrow is Friday. Tweet: @kevcirilli; email: kcirilli@digital-release.thehill.com; and subscribe: http://digital-release.thehill.com/signup/48. Back to work…

2016 WATCH: CLINTON WANTS EARLY VOTING. Ben Kamisar and Jesse Ferguson: “Hillary Clinton on Thursday slammed potential Republican rivals for enacting new voting requirements in their states, as she called for new measures to increase ballot access. The Democratic presidential contender pushed for 20 days of early voting across the country, restoring pieces of the Voting Rights Act and automatic voter registration.” http://bit.ly/1GnpLT1

QUOTABLE, Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund to Fox Business Network: “What we are seeing in the data, particularly on inflation, is that the pickup is very slow and we believe that there is a good argument to actually defer until early 2016 any rate hike in order to err on the side of having potentially a little bit more inflation than 2 percent.” http://bit.ly/1QatiZi

NOTABLE: REP. MARK WALKER (R-N.C.) announces opposition to Ex-Im in local op-ed: http://bit.ly/1BM8hZ8

QUICK Q – – > HOW WILL THE ECONOMY PLAY IN 2016? Alexander Bolton for The Hill: “Conflicting data on the state of the economy present a huge dilemma for both parties. With fewer than 18 months to go before the 2016 elections, Republicans and Democrats are struggling to iron out their respective strategies on job growth — traditionally a top issue for voters. Political analysts say if the economy soars over the next year, it will bode well for Hillary Clinton, the heavy favorite for the Democratic presidential nomination.

“But if it sputters, the GOP will repeatedly attempt to tie Clinton’s economic policies to President Obama’s. Republicans have shifted their economic message in recent weeks and are again criticizing the White House for what they say is a lackluster economic recovery, just months after Republicans sought to take credit for an improving economy at the start of the year.” http://bit.ly/1czBkZ5

— Meanwhile, Rebecca Shabad reports: “Two-thirds of people in the United States say wealth and income must be more evenly distributed, according to a new New York Times/CBS News poll.” http://bit.ly/1dhXYWA

CFPB: LATE-NIGHT ADS ARE RISKY. Ben Steverman for USA Today: “Seniors watch a third more TV than other adults, and every time they turn on the set there’s a good chance they’ll see an ad for reverse mortgages. As healthy-looking retirees ride bikes or play golf, an older actor will explain that reverse mortgages can be a great way for retired homeowners to get some extra spending money. And it’s true: Reverse mortgages can be a valuable tool for retirees. They’re also complicated, with risks that seniors may not expect. According to a new study by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, all those ads are adding to the confusion.” http://bloom.bg/1dQ8qpn

FINCEN UNDER FIRE, via The Economist: “No number strikes fear into bankers’ hearts like ‘311.’ That is the section of America’s Patriot Act of 2001 that gives the Treasury sweeping powers to act against those who facilitate financial crime, anywhere in the world, by labeling them a ‘primary money-laundering concern.’ For firms badly behaved or unlucky enough to be targeted, a 311 designation is more often than not a death sentence…

“Regardless of who is right in this case, there are several reasons to question the use of 311. FinCEN [the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network] does not use this nuclear option often: in 13 years it has been dropped on just over a dozen financial firms and four countries (it can be applied to an entire jurisdiction if the authorities are deemed to be complicit in the misconduct). When it does, the target is generally small or strategically unimportant…

— THE BOTTOM LINE, via The Economist: “It is striking that no 311 measures have been taken against banks in strategically significant Middle Eastern countries where money-laundering is a big concern, such as the United Arab Emirates, or against any banks from Western countries, including America itself, that have been caught facilitating money-laundering on a large scale or operating with woefully inadequate controls, such as Wachovia and HSBC.” MUST-READ STORY: http://econ.st/1di0QCQ

EX-IM CRITIC FIRES BACK AT FRED HOCHBERG. The leading academic opponent of Ex-Im, Mercatus Center’s Veronique De Rugy, in a post for National Review: “During the course of the Senate Banking Committee hearing on the Ex-Im Bank today, Senator Tom Cotton asked the institution’s president, Fred Hochberg, if I was correct that 30 percent of the bank’s activities are justified as countervailing export subsidies by foreign governments.

“He said I wasn’t — that, in fact, two-thirds of what the bank does is intended to ‘level the playing field.’ I have to say that I was surprised by this, since the data I used in my chart comes directly from the Export-Import Bank’s own 2013 annual report… Sorry, Mr. Hochberg, it’s correct to say that only about one third of the bank’s activities are justified as countervailing foreign subsidies and about two-thirds aren’t.” http://bit.ly/1JubqDh

PRIMER: FSB VS FSOC, dive into the weeds on this wonk issue with Meghan Milloy from American Action Forum: “Asset managers are, for the second time in little over a year, defending themselves against threats from the Financial Stability Board (FSB) of sweeping ‘systemically important’ designations that would drastically expand the authority of regulators and expose funds and their investors to superfluous burdens and costs.” http://bit.ly/1di8MnI

WORTH NOTING: DIRECT SELLERS STRENGTHEN ETHICS. The Direct Selling Association (DSA) strengthened their Code of Ethics this week. It’s part of a self-regulatory instrument enforced by DSA, which helps to self-regulate the direct sellers industry. “Trust – in our companies and their teams of independent sales consultants – is crucial,” said Joseph N. Mariano, DSA’s president. “We’ll never forget that and continually strive to earn it as a result of our actions throughout the purchasing process.”

Write us with tips, suggestions and news:  vneedham@digital-release.thehill.compschroeder@digital-release.thehill.combbecker@digital-release.thehill.com; rshabad@digital-release.thehill.com; kcirilli@digital-release.thehill.com.

–Follow us on Twitter: @VickofTheHill@PeteSchroeder@BernieBecker3; @RebeccaShabad and @kevcirilli.