On The Money: Senate GOP thinks Trump would win vote on wall emergency | Why negotiators are optimistic they’ll strike a deal | Trump, Fed chief dine amid tensions | Treasury prepares to fight back over Trump tax returns

Happy Tuesday and welcome back to On The Money. I’m Sylvan Lane, and here’s your nightly guide to everything affecting your bills, bank account and bottom line. We’re all waiting for President Trump’s State of the Union address tonight. Click here to follow The Hill’s live coverage.

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THE BIG DEAL–Border deal negotiators confident they’ll strike a pact, despite Trump: Congressional negotiators are optimistic they can reach a bipartisan border security deal to avert another government shutdown even though President Trump has threatened to scrap the agreement and declare a national emergency to build his proposed border wall.

{mosads}A bipartisan, bicameral negotiating group tasked with finalizing a deal will meet behind closed doors on Wednesday for a briefing from border security experts.

Talks hinge on a series of technicalities and semantics. President Trump said he wants $5.7 billion for a concrete wall or steel slats. Senate Democrats had agreed to $1.6 billion in fencing last year, while House Democrats had opposed any sort of physical barrier until last week.

But following a five-week shutdown, Democrats have indicated an openness to funding some physical barriers as part of a broader deal. The Hill’s Niv Elis explains here. 

• Rep. Kay Granger (R-Texas), the ranking member of the House Appropriations Committee, said that the final number for a barrier would include new construction and repairs to existing border sites and technology, which could grease the wheels for Trump.
• Negotiators are hopeful that they can strike a deal by Friday or over the weekend and still ensure their legislation would have time to pass both chambers by the February 15th deadline.

Of course, there’s the chance that Trump forgoes the deal and issues and emergency declaration to build the wall instead. Republican senators are confident that their conference will support Trump if the Democratic House attempts to block the declaration, according to The Hill’s Alexander Bolton.

Republicans say Democrats will probably need five GOP votes if they are to win passage of a disapproval resolution, as Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) says he supports a national emergency declaration.

• Under the National Emergencies Act, a resolution terminating Trump’s declaration of national emergency would be deemed privileged and guaranteed a vote on the Senate floor.
• Even if it passes, Trump could veto it, and Republicans are confident they have the 34 votes it would take to sustain it on the Senate floor. But it could set up an ugly and public fight.
• While a number of Republicans have sought to dissuade Trump from declaring a national emergency, they may not embrace a public fight on Trump’s signature issue — which risks earning the wrath of his conservative base ahead of the 2020 election.   

LEADING THE DAY

Trump pick sets up fight over World Bank: President Trump’s pick to lead the World Bank could spark an unprecedented battle over the future of the multinational lender.

Trump is set to nominate Treasury Undersecretary David Malpass–a fierce critic of the World Bank–to serve as its next president, spurring concern within the development finance world.

Malpass has been a key figure in the Trump administration’s push to scale down U.S. foreign aid and he has blasted lenders like the World Bank as “inefficient” and “often corrupt.” He would replace Jim Yong Kim, who announced last month he’d leave the bank to take a position in the private sector.

The move comes at a critical time for the international institution which faces new challenges and with new rising threats to the global economy. You can read all about it tomorrow morning at TheHill.com and in our print edition.

Treasury plans steps to stymie Dem requests for Trump tax returns: Officials at the White House and Treasury Department are reportedly working to stymie any requests from Democratic lawmakers for President Trump’s tax returns even before they occur.

Four Trump administration sources told Politico that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin plans to hinge his arguments against providing the president’s past tax returns to Democrats based on the assertion that Democrats would be unable to prevent the leak of Trump’s returns — a felony — from occurring.

Publicly, the administration plans to cast requests for Trump’s returns as a blatant partisan attack against the president in the hopes of turning public opinion against the newly elected House Democratic majority.

Trump dines with Fed chief Powell after months of tension: President Trump hosted Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for an “informal dinner” at the White House on Monday night, according to a statement from the central bank.

Trump dined with Powell, Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in the White House residence Monday night, according to the Fed, where the four discussed “recent economic developments and the outlook for growth, employment and inflation.”

While the central bank is an independent agency, it is historically common for presidents and Fed chairmen to meet throughout their terms.

{mossecondads}Trump has criticized Powell, a Republican, since July of last year as the Fed has gradually raised interest rates. The president publicly griped that the Fed had gone “crazy” and reportedly considered trying to fire Powell, whom he appointed to lead the bank in 2017.

• The Fed said Monday that Powell “did not discuss his expectations for monetary policy, except to stress that the path of policy will depend entirely on incoming economic information and what that means for the outlook.”
• “Chair Powell said that he and his colleagues on the FOMC will set monetary policy in order to support maximum employment and stable prices and will make those decisions based solely on careful, objective and non-political analysis,” the Fed said.
• Powell said at a press conference last week that the Fed is “patiently awaiting greater clarity” before hiking rates again as the economy’s continued strength faces threats from waning global growth and geopolitical tensions.

GOOD TO KNOW 

• The Senate Finance Committee on Tuesday advanced for a second time President Trump’s nominee for a key IRS position after the nominee didn’t get a vote on the Senate floor in the last Congress.
• A federal bankruptcy judge on Monday approved a plan for Puerto Rico to restructure its debt, according to The Associated Press.
• Tech giant Apple has reportedly reached a deal with French authorities to pay back about $571 million the country said was owed in undeclared back taxes.
• White House acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney has invited a bipartisan group of lawmakers to Camp David this weekend for informal meetings, a White House official confirmed on Tuesday.

ODDS AND ENDS

• Four of President Trump’s trips to his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Fla., during the first three months of his presidency cost the federal government nearly $14 million, according to a report from the Government Accountability Office (GAO).
• Far-right activist Laura Loomer has been kicked off of PayPal, she announced via Instagram on Tuesday.