On The Money: Trump says trade deal with China ‘very close’ | White House eyes budget ploy to avoid defense cuts | Economic panel predicts recession by 2021

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THE BIG DEAL–Trump says trade deal with China ‘very, very close’ after delaying tariff increase: President Trump said Monday the U.S. and China are “very, very close” to reaching an agreement on a trade deal one day after he announced he would delay additional tariffs on Beijing.

Speaking to a group of governors at the White House, Trump said Chinese representatives would likely be coming back “quickly” for more negotiations.

{mosads}”I told you how well we did with our trade talks in China, and it looks like they’ll be coming back quickly again,” Trump said. “And we’re going to have another summit. We’re going to have a signing summit, which is even better.”

“So hopefully we can get that completed, but we’re getting very, very close,” he added.

Trump tweeted Sunday evening that the two countries had made “substantial progress” in trade talks. As a result, he said, the U.S. would delay a tariff hike that was set to go into effect on Friday. The Hill’s Brett Samuels fills us in here.

What comes next: Trump said if “both sides make additional progress,” the White House and Beijing will plan a summit at Mar-a-Lago for him and Chinese President Xi Jinping to finalize the deal.

ON TAP TOMORROW

• The Senate Banking Committee will vote on 10 nominees to the Export-Import Bank, National Credit Union Administration, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Treasury Department and Department of Housing and Urban Development, 9:30 a.m.
• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell appears before the Senate Banking Committee to testify on the central bank’s semiannual report to Congress, 10 a.m.
• The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “Who’s Keeping Score? Holding Credit Bureaus Accountable and Repairing a Broken System,” 10 a.m.
• The House Small Business Committee holds a hearing entitled “Shutdown Lessons: SBA Capital Access Programs,” 10 a.m.
• The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing on diversity trends in the financial services industry, 2 p.m.

LEADING THE DAY

Three-fourths of economists predict recession by 2021: More than three-fourths of an influential panel of economists said the U.S. will enter a recession by 2021, according to survey results released Monday by the National Association of Business Economics (NABE).

Of the 281 members of NABE, a leadership and research group for business economists, 77 percent said they believe the U.S. economy will begin to shrink within two years.

The results are the latest sign of concern that a slowdown in global growth will soon weigh down the U.S. economy.

More than half of NABE members said the U.S. economy would begin to retract by 2020, with 42 percent projecting a recession next year and 10 percent predicting one within 2019.

One-fourth of NABE members said the next recession would start in 2021, 11 percent said it would start after 2021 and 13 percent did not say when they expected the U.S. economy to pull back. I’ve got more on the survey and what it means here.

White House eyes budget maneuver to prevent defense cuts: President Trump plans to propose using a budget maneuver to invest in defense and national security without lifting budget caps, according to acting Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought on Monday.

Vought said in an op-ed for RealClearPolitics that Trump’s fiscal 2020 budget, which is expected to be released next month, will designate additional defense spending as Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) funds, which are not subject to the limits set under the Budget Control Act.

Several news outlets have reported that Trump could call for designating as much as $174 billion in defense spending as OCO, a significant increase from the $69 billion designated in that account for this year. The Hill’s Naomi Jagoda explains why.

Trump Organization donated nearly $200K in foreign profits in 2018 to Treasury: The Trump Organization said Monday that it donated nearly $200,000 in profits from foreign governments in 2018 to the U.S. Treasury, an uptick from last year.

The company said in a statement that it wrote a check for $191,538 covering profits from embassy parties, hotel stays and other foreign government spending at Trump properties.

The statement did not elaborate on foreign customers or how much certain individuals spent.

President Trump and his family have faced consistent criticism from government watchdogs who have raised concerns about their ability to profit from the presidency, and questioned whether they are in violation of the Emoluments Clause of the Constitution.

A Richmond, Va.-based federal court of appeals has set aside dates in March to hear arguments in Trump’s appeal of an emoluments lawsuit brought by the attorneys general of Maryland and Washington, D.C.

GOOD TO KNOW

• Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said in an interview aired Monday that President Trump lacks a basic understanding of economics and the central bank’s mission.
• GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) said over the weekend that she is “likely” to support a resolution blocking President Trump’s emergency declaration, which is expected to be sent to the Senate later this week.
• Wonder where other key Republicans stand? Check out The Hill’s Whip List.
• President Trump on Monday urged the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to “relax and take it easy,” warning the international organization against raising oil prices.
• Complaints about lower refunds and higher taxes are amplifying calls from Northeast and West Coast leaders to do away with the GOP tax law’s limit on the deduction for state and local taxes.
  Democrats are bracing for an internal battle as the House Budget Committee starts cobbling together its budget for 2020, a blueprint that’s expected to put the party’s progressive wing at odds with its moderates.
• Women at the State Department are concerned that they are getting paid less than men in equivalent roles, primarily due to an incentives program that critics say contributes to the gender wage gap.

ODDS AND ENDS

• Google is seeking up to $15 million in tax breaks to build a $600 million data center in Becker, Minn., according to a report from Minnesota Public Radio.
• A center-right think tank said Monday that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (D-N.Y.) Green New Deal could cost up to $93 trillion.
• Op-Ed: Dennis Kelleher, president and CEO of Better Markets, argues why “Worse than nothing’s been done since the massive Equifax hack.”