On The Money: Trump, Congress reach two-year budget, debt limit deal | What we know | Deal gets pushback from conservatives | Equifax to pay up to $700M in data breach settlement | Warren warns another ‘crash’ is coming

Happy Monday and welcome back to On The Money, where we’re officially ready for Autumn after this weekend. I’m Sylvan Lane, and here’s your nightly guide to everything affecting your bills, bank account and bottom line.

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THE BIG DEAL– Trump, Congress reach two-year budget deal: President Trump announced on Monday that Congress and the White House had reached a two-year budget deal after days of furious negotiating.

The agreement, spearheaded by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, sets the top-line numbers for overall defense and non-defense spending for the 2020 and 2021 fiscal years. It would also suspend the debt ceiling through July 2021.{mosads}

“I am pleased to announce that a deal has been struck with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy – on a two-year Budget and Debt Ceiling, with no poison pills,” Trump tweeted.

The Hill’s Jordain Carney has the details here. 

 

The deal: The emerging deal includes an increase in top-line defense and nondefense spending numbers for the 2020 and 2021 fiscal years, which are used to craft government funding bills. It would also suspend the debt limit until July 31, 2021.

According to Democratic aides, the topline for defense spending would be $738 billion and $740 billion for the 2020 and 2021 fiscal years, respectively. Non-defense spending would be $632 billion for fiscal 2020 and $634.5 billion for fiscal 2021.

 

‘A true compromise’: “The near-final agreement is a traditional bipartisan budget agreement where both sides will be unhappy with some aspects — a true compromise,” a source said in an email to The Hill.

• The source said there is “parity” in the increase for defense and nondefense spending.

• In a concession by the White House, the “near-final agreement” would include roughly $75 billion in offsets, or spending cuts and revenue raisers, to help pay for the deal. That’s half of the $150 billion the administration had pushed to include in the agreement.

• The White House reportedly sent a list of $574 billion in potential cuts to congressional leaders late last week, which was dismissed by Democrats as a negotiating tactic.

 

Something for everyone: A source familiar with the negotiations said the agreement includes “strong language” on preventing poison-pill riders, or provisions that would be non-starters for either parties; more than $20 billion for the VA Mission Act under the budget caps; and $77 billion in offsets to help pay for the agreement. Those will be wins for Republicans.

Democrats, meanwhile, pointed specifically to money for the 2020 census. A senior Democratic aide said they secured $2.5 billion “to help ensure everyone is counted.”

The deal also includes new opioid epidemic funding, an increase in the National Institutes of Health budget and additional money for the Child Care Development Block Grant, according to the aide.

 

Pushback? Conservatives and budget hawks are likely to push back on the deal. House Republican Vice Conference Chairman Mark Walker (R-N.C.), tweeted out a gif of Heath Ledger’s Joker surrounded by burning stacks of money following the deal’s announcement. And Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas), the top Republican on the Ways and Means Committee, said he was going to introduce legislation to rein in spending.

 

Signs of relief? The potential agreement comes as lawmakers are going down to the wire to get a deal before they leave town for the August recess. The House will have only days to pass it before they leave town on Friday, though the Senate will remain in Washington until Aug. 2.

Plus, lawmakers are racing to raise the debt limit before the Treasury Department runs out of ways to prevent a default, which could happen as soon as early September–before lawmakers return from summer break.

 

LEADING THE DAY

Equifax to pay up to $700 million in 2017 data breach settlement: Equifax will pay $575 million in fines for the massive 2017 data breach that exposed sensitive information for 147 million people.

The sum is part of a settlement announced Monday morning with 50 U.S. attorneys general, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB).

The settlement requires Equifax to pay $300 million to a compensation fund for victims of the breach and could end up paying an additional $125 million if the fund runs out — meaning the company could end up paying as much as $700 million.

Equifax will also pay $175 million to a coalition of 50 states and territories, as well as $100 million to the CFPB.

“Equifax failed in its fundamental responsibility to safeguard consumers’ sensitive financial information,” Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) said in a statement. 

“Equifax knew that there were serious flaws in their system, but still they did not take appropriate steps to fix it. They left their system vulnerable to the biggest data breach in history and the financial futures of millions of Americans were put at risk–and it was entirely preventable.”

The Hill’s Harper Neidig walks us through the settlement and the reaction to it here. But some lawmakers worry the deal does not do enough to punish Equifax and they worry that regulators need more authority to deal with breaches. The Hill’s Emily Birnbaum and Maggie Miller tell us more about the backlash here. 

 

Warren warns another ‘economic crash’ is coming: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) on Monday warned of a “coming economic crash” and highlighted proposals that could help to prevent another downturn.

“When I look at the economy today, I see a lot to worry about again,” the Massachusetts senator and 2020 presidential contender wrote in an essay on Medium that was titled “The Coming Economic Crash — And How to Stop It.”

“I see a manufacturing sector in recession. I see a precarious economy that is built on debt — both household debt and corporate debt — and that is vulnerable to shocks. And I see a number of serious shocks on the horizon that could cause our economy’s shaky foundation to crumble,” she added. The Hill’s Naomi Jagoda breaks down Warren’s plan here.

 

The context: Warren’s comments come as President Trump has touted strong economic data, including stock market records and low unemployment rates, looking to turn them into key selling points for his reelection campaign. But of course the picture is a bit more complicated than that.

• Democrats are trying to undercut Trump’s economic arguments by arguing that many middle-class people are still struggling.

• Warren wrote that she warned about an economic crash in the years leading up to the 2008 downturn, but that policymakers and banks didn’t listen to her at the time. 

• She said that there are several economic trends that have her concerned that another downturn is on the horizon, including rising household and corporate debt, a decline in manufacturing production for two straight quarters, the potential for the U.S. to default on its debt in September if the debt limit isn’t raised before then, and Trump’s trade war with China.

 

The proposals: She highlighted several of her proposals that could help protect the economy, including her proposals to cancel up to $50,000 in student loan debt for most people with such debt, provide universal child care, provide tuition-free public college and invest in green manufacturing. 

She also urged federal regulators to enforce guidance designed to stop banks from issuing risky loans and urged the Trump administration to come up with a “coherent strategy” to respond to China’s trade tactics and to stop pushing for a “no-deal Brexit.”

 

GOOD TO KNOW

• K Street’s boom is going strong after the second quarter of 2019, which brought lobbying firms strong earnings as they worked on shaping President Trump’s trade agenda, a bipartisan push for drug pricing reforms and other issues.

• Chinese investment in the U.S. plunged nearly 90 percent during President Trump’s first two years in office as the world’s two largest economies have waged an aggressive trade war.

• Alex Morse, the 30-year-old mayor of Holyoke, Mass., announced a primary challenge to House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal (D-Mass.), a 30-year-incumbent, on Monday.

• A close ally of German Chancellor Angela Merkel is set to take the helm of the European Union (EU), posing a test for President Trump as he seeks to ramp up pressure on everything from trade to defense spending. 

• Bloomberg News: “The U.S. and China are moving closer to their first face-to-face trade negotiations in months, with a meeting between tech executives and senior White House officials on Monday expected to mark another step toward easing a ban on sales to China’s Huawei Technologies Co.”

 

ODDS AND ENDS

• Microsoft on Monday agreed to pay more than $25 million to settle a case alleging the software giant violated a federal anti-bribery law, according to the Department of Justice (DOJ).

• A top aide to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Monday that House Democrats will unveil their long-awaited bill to lower drug prices in September.