On The Money: Republicans start bracing for shutdown fight in run-up to election | Mnuchin: White House seriously considering second round of stimulus checks | Labor leaders under pressure on police unions

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THE BIG DEAL—Republicans start bracing for shutdown fight in run-up to election: Senate Republicans are growing concerned that rising tensions between President Trump and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) could lead to a shutdown fight just weeks before the election and threaten their slim majority in the chamber. 

• There is widespread anxiety among GOP senators that Trump’s penchant for picking fights is a political liability as his response to nationwide protests against police brutality appears to be a major reason behind his declining approval ratings.
• Republicans are now worried that he’s likely to pick a fight with Pelosi in September over government funding for the next fiscal year, which starts Oct. 1.

GOP lawmakers say the last thing they need a few weeks before the Nov. 3 election is a spending standoff and possible government shutdown, especially with 23 Republican Senate seats up for reelection and only 12 Democratic seats at stake. The Hill’s Alexander Bolton has more here.

Spending bill logjam: 

• The Senate has yet to pass any of the 12 appropriations bills.
• In the House, Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Nita Lowey (D-N.Y.) announced that she intends to hold all subcommittee and full committee markups the weeks of July 6 and July 13.

The solution? Some Senate Republicans are discussing moving legislation that would prevent a government shutdown even if the annual appropriations bills haven’t been passed. 

• The GOP senators say they’ve gotten a commitment from Republican leaders for a vote in the coming weeks.
• There’s strong Republican support for the legislation, but it faces an uphill path to securing support from Pelosi, Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and other Democrats who worry that automatically defaulting to long-term stopgap spending measures could take pressure off Congress to pass new spending bills every year.

LEADING THE DAY

Mnuchin: White House seriously considering second round of stimulus checks: Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has signaled that the Trump administration is considering another round of stimulus checks as many Americans continue to feel the economic sting of the coronavirus pandemic.

“It’s something that we’re very seriously considering,” Mnuchin told the press Thursday, according to The Wall Street Journal. He said that a final decision would be coming on whether President Trump would push for the checks in Congress’s next stimulus package.

The initial round of stimulus checks was part of Congress’s $2 trillion-plus CARES Act passed in March. Qualifying American adults received a one-time payment of up tp $1,200, receiving an additional $500 for every dependent claimed under the age of 17.

Labor leaders under pressure to oust police unions: Labor leaders are coming under pressure from within their own ranks to sever ties with law enforcement groups amid the nationwide protests against police brutality and racial injustices.

The effort to oust police unions took shape this week when a major writer’s union passed a resolution calling on the AFL-CIO to expel the International Union of Police Associations.

• The request by the Writers Guild of America, East, was rebuffed, with the AFL-CIO saying “police officers, and everyone who works for a living, have the right to collective bargaining,” and that it was preferable to engage police unions rather than isolate them.
• But it’s unlikely to be the last attempt to separate police unions from the broader labor movement.

“There’s a debate that’s going on within labor and we’re trying to support the folks within labor that understand that police unions are not trying to protect the humanity and dignity of all people,” said Scott Roberts, senior director of criminal justice campaigns for Color Of Change.

The Hill’s Niv Elis has more here.

Historic allies now at odds: For decades, labor has largely been a bastion of support for Democrats. But that dynamic is now being tested.

• At a Thursday hearing on police reform, sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus, witnesses repeatedly pointed to the role of police unions as an obstacle to passing significant reforms.
• Activists point to strong union contracts that have shielded rogue cops from punishment, prevented abusive officers from losing their jobs after violent incidents and helped build what critics call a “culture of impunity” among police.

Even so, some lawmakers don’t see labor confederations as the proper venue for police reform.

Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-Fla.), a CBC member and former teachers union member, said she doesn’t think the Democrats’ new reform package waters down the power of police unions.

“I’m a union advocate. So, I know that the job of the union is to support the people who are members of their union — that’s the teachers, the firefighters, the police. And I’m sensitive. I’m a union lady. I’m a teacher by trade. I’m a family or teachers, and so we have a different perspective of unions,” Wilson told The Hill.

COVID-19 spikes, but most governors signal they’re staying the course: The coronavirus is spiking across more than a dozen states, but many governors are signaling they have no interest in bringing back restrictive stay-at-home orders almost regardless of what happens.

• Even governors with detailed metrics for reopening have shown little appetite to plan for the inevitable virus surges.
• Public health experts say there are less drastic measures to take than reimposing lockdowns, but as the virus rages, they warn time may be running short.

“Once you see cases rise, it’s too late. [A rising] number of cases signifies a spread that’s already happened,” said Jen Kates, a senior vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation.

The Hill’s Reid Wilson explains here.

ON TAP NEXT WEEK

Tuesday:

• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee during a virtual hearing on the bank’s semi-annual monetary policy report at 10 a.m.
• A House Financial Services subcommittee holds a virtual hearing on financial fraud during the COVID-19 pandemic at 12 p.m.

Wednesday:

• U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer testifies before the House Ways and Committee on the Trump administration’s 2020 trade agenda at 10 a.m.
• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee during a virtual hearing on the bank’s semi-annual monetary policy report at 12 p.m.
• The House Small Business Committee holds a virtual hearing entitled “Paycheck Protection Program: Loan Forgiveness and Other Challenges” at 1 p.m.
• U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer testifies before the Senate Finance Committee on the Trump administration’s 2020 trade agenda at 3 p.m.

Thursday:

• A House Ways and Means subcommittee holds a hearing on tax relief and COVID-19 at 12 p.m.

GOOD TO KNOW

• Senior White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said Friday there is a growing disparity in how Republican-led states and Democratic-led states are recovering from the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic.
• Manhattan saw a sharp decrease in May in the number of new leases issued, dropping 62 percent amid the coronavirus pandemic, according to a CNBC report.
• Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign predicted in a memo released on Friday that President Trump will face “significant headwinds” in November over his administration’s handling of the economy. 
• The American Federation of Teachers (AFT), the second largest teachers’ union in the U.S., is launching a $1 million ad campaign encouraging audiences to support additional coronavirus relief.  
• Starbucks on Friday reversed its stance barring employees from wearing clothing that supports the Black Lives Matter movement.