On The Money: Biden tries to navigate bumpy recovery | Jobless claims hit another post-pandemic low | Treasury calls for 15 percent minimum global tax

Happy Thursday and welcome back to On The Money, where we’ve finally found uncontroversial CDC guidance. I’m Sylvan Lane, and here’s your nightly guide to everything affecting your bills, bank account and bottom line.

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THE BIG DEAL—Biden tries to navigate fits and starts of economic recovery: An onslaught of surprising economic data is raising difficult questions for President Biden as he attempts to steer the recovery without derailing it.

• Republicans have pounced on unexpectedly high inflation readings and a disappointing jobs report for April, arguing they are the products of an overzealous government response that could kneecap the economy.
• Democrats counter that price hikes will be temporary, and that government programs and spending are needed to ensure a quick rebound and avoid the kind of multiyear sluggish recovery that followed the Great Recession.

But economists say both sides, to a certain degree, are flying blind given the potential quirks of an economy reawakening from a pandemic-induced slumber. It could take months before either side is vindicated.

“It’s harder to tell in data what’s an anomaly and a blip and what’s a new trend,” said Scott Ruesterholz, a portfolio manager at Insight Investment, pointing to unusual and unexpected starts and stops in the data over the past few months. “This is an unprecedented recession, so we’re having an unprecedented recovery.”

The Hill’s Niv Elis tells us why.

How long until we know? The lag between policy implementation and seeing the results can often take months. 

• Economists point out that even if GOP governors are successful in their efforts to get people back into the labor force by pulling federal unemployment benefits, there’s likely to be a two-month gap before the numbers will come in showing whether it worked.
• State-level unemployment data for July won’t be available until September, and the emergency programs will have already expired by then.

Read more about the recovering economy: 

• The additional $300 in emergency unemployment benefits likely only has a small effect on recipients’ decisions to take jobs, according to a new working paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. 
• The number of new applications for unemployment insurance fell last week to 444,000, according to data released Thursday by the Labor Department, setting a new post-lockdown low for initial weekly jobless claims.

LEADING THE DAY

House narrowly approves $1.9B Capitol security bill after ‘squad’ drama: The House on Thursday passed a $1.9 billion spending bill to upgrade Capitol security in the wake of the Jan. 6 mob attack in a tight 213-212 vote, with the bill nearly going down because of opposition from liberal Democrats known as the “squad.”

The legislation was approved with three Democrats — Reps. Cori Bush (Mo.), Ilhan Omar (Minn.) and Ayanna Pressley (Mass.) — voting “no” and another three — Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.), Rashida Tlaib (Mich.) and Jamaal Bowman (N.Y.) — voting “present.” Two Republicans were absent from the vote, while all Republicans present voted “no.”

What went down: Some liberals were questioning if a double standard was at play between police handling of Black Lives Matter protests and when the pro-Trump mob, some of whom carried Confederate flags, stormed the Capitol.

• “We cannot support this increased funding while many of our communities continue to face police brutality while marching in the streets, and while questions about the disparate response between insurrectionists and those protesting in defense of Black lives go unanswered,” Bush, Omar and Pressley said in a joint statement.
• But the impasse sparked frustration among other Democrats, who were agitated that the bill’s critics waited until the floor vote to air their grievances. “That kind of ‘gotcha’ thing does not help,” one liberal Democrat said.

The Hill’s Cristina Marcos and Niv Elis have more here.

Treasury pitches global minimum tax rate of at least 15 percent: The Treasury Department on Thursday said it has proposed a global minimum corporate tax rate of at least 15 percent after meeting with officials from other countries as part of international tax negotiations.

“Treasury underscored that 15% is a floor and that discussions should continue to be ambitious and push that rate higher,” the department said in a statement. “Treasury was heartened by the positive reception to its proposals and the unprecedented progress being made towards establishing a global corporate minimum tax.”

The background: 

• The OECD, a group of industrialized countries, has been discussing international tax issues, including a global minimum corporate rate. 
• The Biden administration has been emphasizing the international negotiations as it seeks to raise U.S. taxes on multinational corporations to pay for infrastructure investment.
• Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said that establishing a global minimum tax rate could help to end a “race to the bottom” on corporate taxes and help ensure countries are able to raise sufficient revenue to provide public services.

The Hill’s Naomi Jagoda breaks it down here.

GOOD TO KNOW

• President Biden on Thursday signed an executive order directing several federal departments and agencies to analyze the risks climate change poses to the U.S. financial system and federal government, the White House announced.
• Two of President Biden’s top Cabinet officials leading his infrastructure push on Thursday pitched lawmakers on the importance of a major investment in affordable housing as Democrats and Republicans attempt to strike a bipartisan deal.
• A group of Democrats on the House Ways and Means Committee on Thursday introduced a bill aimed at encouraging businesses to hire workers who have been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic.
• The Treasury Department estimated that the gap between taxes owed and taxes paid on time was about $600 billion in 2019 as it provided more details on Thursday about President Biden’s plan to strengthen IRS enforcement.

ODDS AND ENDS

• Five women from across Amazon’s corporate offices and warehouses are accusing the e-commerce giant of racial and gender discrimination, according to lawsuits filed Wednesday. 
• A watchdog group launched an advertising campaign on Wednesday to urge major corporations to end their membership with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce over lobbying against voting rights legislation.