After Ohio voters soundly defeated a ballot initiative Tuesday that was largely viewed as a proxy for abortion, the spotlight now turns to November’s abortion-rights ballot measure.
Backers of the abortion-rights amendment are confident they will succeed, but they also recognize the challenge ahead; a proxy fight is not the same as the real issue.
“I wish we could call it an absolute one to one proxy, but I think that this is a pretty encouraging and positive sign for everyone paying attention to the November race,” said Kelly Hall, executive director of the progressive ballot measure group Fairness Project.
Ohio is the only state that will vote on abortion this fall, making it the current epicenter of the reproductive-rights fight.
The unofficial results from Tuesday showed 57 percent of voters said no to Issue 1, a resounding defeat. Even in many solid red counties, “no” votes outpaced President Trump’s performance from 2020.
The measure would have changed the threshold for all future ballot measures to require 60 percent of voters to enact new amendments, instead of a simple majority. It also would have changed the signature gathering process.
Though Issue 1 did not mention abortion in the text, it was largely aimed at undercutting November’s abortion-rights ballot measure. Since it was defeated, constitutional amendments in Ohio will continue to require just a simple majority in order to pass.
“Ohioans rejected an outrageous attempt by extremists to silence our voices and insert government into our families’ most personal medical decisions,” said Lauren Beene, co-founder of Ohio Physicians for Reproductive Rights.
“Today, we begin the battle to protect our constitutional rights and reject government interference in November.”
Attempts to make it harder to pass ballot initiatives have proven unpopular in the past, and abortion-rights groups will now have to decouple the messaging of abortion from one about protecting the power of voters.
Aside from Ohio, legislatures in North Dakota, South Dakota, Idaho, Arizona, Missouri, Florida and Arkansas have all discussed efforts to block or limit citizen-sponsored ballot initiatives. Only Arizona succeeded in raising the threshold, and that was specifically about ballot measures that raise taxes.
But every state that put abortion on the ballot in 2022 voted in favor of protecting access to the procedure in some way, including Republican-leaning Kentucky and Kansas.
Ohio polls show support for its abortion ballot measure crosses party lines, but the messaging may be key in a state that has grown increasingly conservative.
Anti-abortion groups have argued the amendment would lead to abortions with no restrictions, including for minors without parental consent.
Nearly 58 percent of Ohio voters said they would back the abortion-rights amendment, including 81 percent of Democrats and 32 percent of Republicans, according to a July USA TODAY Network Ohio/Suffolk University poll.
A Scripps News/YouGov survey of Ohians conducted in June found that 42 percent agreed with restrictions on abortion to some degree, compared to 36 percent who disagreed.
Supporters of Issue 1 initially denied that it was aimed at abortion, and many of the ads tried to paint it as a “parents’ rights” issue against gender-affirming care for children.
They also said it was meant to protect Ohio’s laws from the influence of wealthy out-of-state interest groups — even though much of the pro-Issue 1 funding came from an Illinois-based Republican mega donor.
But with Issue 1 defeated, anti-abortion groups are ready to devote more time and money directly to defeating the November amendment.
“This result will not deter us from continuing to fight the ACLU’s extreme agenda this November, which seeks to allow abortion up until birth and take away parents’ rights to protect their child from being pressured into an abortion or even a sex-change operation,” said Peter Range, chief executive officer of Ohio Right to Life.
Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, one of the country’s leading anti-abortion groups, slammed conservatives who stood on the sideline or pretended the vote wasn’t about abortion.
“So long as the Republicans and their supporters take the ostrich strategy and bury their heads in the sand, they will lose again and again,” the group said in a statement.
But at the same time, the abortion amendment supporters are also shifting into high gear.
“The attention was really on Issue 1 for the last two months. What I think happens now is there’s an immediate shift to the reproductive freedom amendment in the fall election,” said Jeff Rusnak, a strategist for Ohio Physicians for Reproductive Rights.
“I think having the spotlight on this issue is what’s needed. I think voters are completely engaged on this.”