Florida polls show abortion measure falling short

While a new survey finds that more than half of Florida voters support a state ballot initiative to protect abortion rights, it might not be enough to clinch passage in November’s election.

A poll released Wednesday from Florida Atlantic University (FAU) and Mainstreet USA found 56 percent of Sunshine State voters support the proposed amendment, falling short of the 60 percent threshold Florida requires for constitutional amendments to become law.

Slightly more women said they would vote for Amendment 4 than men, 59 percent to 54 percent. A greater share, 62 percent, of 18- to 49-year-olds support the initiative, pollsters added.

Party voters are much more split on the issue, with Democrats largely in support of the initiative versus 35 percent of Republicans and 59 percent of independents.

Amendment 4 would prohibit laws in the state from restricting or banning abortion until fetal viability. It has faced various challenges from state officials even after Florida’s Supreme Court greenlighted it for the ballot in May.

The most recent numbers are an increase from April, when the amendment had 49 percent support, Luzmarina Garcia, Ph.D., assistant professor of political science at FAU, wrote in a statement.

Compared with another poll, however, it is a drop in support from last month.

The earlier poll, released late last month from University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab, found 69 percent of respondents said they would vote for the amendment, 13 points higher than FAU’s survey.

The poll was conducted Aug. 10-11, sampling 1,055 registered Florida voters ages 18 and older. Pollsters said a specific margin of error could not be determined due to the online component of the test, but noted polls of the same size have a margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points.