UN: Number of Ukrainians fleeing invasion could be two times higher than initial projections

An additional 3 million Ukrainians are expected to flee across the border into neighboring countries by December, with the United Nations now projecting a total of 8.3 million refugees from Russia’s invasion.

To support the projected influx of refugees into neighboring countries like Poland, Hungary, Moldova, Romania and Slovakia, the U.N.’s High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is seeking $1.85 billion in aid. Around 5 million people have already fled the country since the war began in February.

“Robust and flexible funding will be crucial to sustaining this solidarity and reaffirming support for the continued protection and inclusion of refugees,” Shabia Mantoo, a UNHCR spokesperson, said Tuesday at a press conference.

Poland is expected to receive the most refugees, with some 4.3 million entries projected this year. Around 2.9 million refugees had entered Poland as of April 23.

“Families have been torn apart, houses and infrastructure have been destroyed, while the trauma of war will have a lasting impact on many of those forced to flee their homes, including women and children who represent some 90 per cent of those forced to flee,” Mantoo said.

The UNHCR’s also estimates that an additional 13 million people are stranded or unable to leave Ukraine due to safety reasons. And around 8 million people remain internally displaced.

The report states that the people who are trapped in areas of “escalating hostilities” are facing potential shortages of food, water, medicine and health care, especially in areas like Mariupol, which has been described as a human catastrophe by the U.N. 

Before the invasion, Ukraine had a population of around 44 million.