Top Ukrainian intelligence official: Russia will run out of ‘military tools’ by spring

A top Ukrainian military intelligence official predicted that Russia will run out of the “military tools” necessary for its war in Ukraine by the end of the spring.

“Russia has wasted huge amounts of human resources, armaments and materials,” Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told USA Today in an interview published Thursday. “Its economy and production are not able to cover these losses. It’s changed its military chain of command. If Russia’s military fails in its aims this spring, it will be out of military tools.”

Russia launched its long-anticipated counteroffensive in eastern Ukraine last month, sending in tens of thousands of new troops. However, Moscow has incurred heavy casualties in its latest effort, as it continues to send in “ill-equipped and ill-trained” recruits, experts say.

Russia is losing hundreds of soldiers a day during some of the heaviest fighting in Bakhmut, although Ukrainian officials have recently indicated that they may withdraw from the city.

While many military experts have suggested that the war could drag on for an extended period of time, Budanov predicted in his interview with USA Today that the end was near, suggesting that there would be “a decisive battle this spring, and this battle will be the final one before this war ends.”

However, the U.S. has warned in recent weeks that China has previously provided Russia with non-lethal aid and is “strongly considering” upping that to lethal aid, such as weapons and munitions.

Kyiv has increasingly pressed the Biden administration for heavier weaponry, most recently F-16 fighter jets, but President Biden has so far ruled out such assistance. 

“I apply a different logic when I look at this issue,” Budanov said of the West’s hesitancy. “This conflict has already grown into an existential war between Russia and the West. Yes, the West is not participating in this war with their militaries. But they are providing us with weapons so we can use them in the fight.” 

“This means a Ukrainian victory over Russia is a common victory,” he added. “And if Ukraine falls — though unlikely — it’s a defeat for all of Western civilization.”