Poland sees rising danger with Wagner’s presence in Belarus

Polish officials are increasing their security around the nation’s border with neighboring Belarus due to concerns that the presence of the Wagner Group may intensify conflict between the two countries. 

According to a Bloomberg report, officials estimate about 8,000 Wagner members will be stationed in Belarus, which could lead to a new, but more difficult phase of hybrid warfare.

Polish authorities also reported an increase in African and Middle Eastern migrants attempting to cross the border illegally and accused Belarus of purposefully aiding the process. 

“We potentially have a new situation in Belarus with the Wagner presence,” Polish Deputy Prime Minister Jarosław Kaczyński said at a press conference Wednesday, Bloomberg reported. “The situation is dangerous for Ukraine, and it’s also potentially dangerous for Lithuania and us.”

Kaczyński also said in the news conference that the country plans to increase its military presence and build new military defenses close to the border. 

Poland’s latest move comes days after Wagner Group and its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, relocated to Belarus after brokering an agreement between the mercenary company and the Russian government. The move was made in an effort to prevent a civil war in Russia.

Prigozhin urged an armed rebellion over the weekend to oust Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, also challenging Russian President Vladimir Putin’s justification for the country’s ongoing war with neighboring Ukraine.

Prigozhin eventually ordered his private army to stop its advance after reaching an agreement in which Russia would drop its charges against him for leading an armed rebellion, and he would relocate to Belarus.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who brokered the deal between the two sides, said he convinced Russian President Vladimir Putin not to “eliminate” the Wagner Group. 

“The most dangerous thing, as I saw it, was not the situation itself, but its possible ramifications. That was the most dangerous part of it,” Lukashenko said in a statement on Tuesday. “I also realized that a tough decision was taken … to eliminate those involved.”

“I suggested that Putin should not rush to do it. I suggested that I talk to Prigozhin, his commanders,” he added.