Biden gets major win from Turkey ahead of key NATO summit

President Biden’s hopes of projecting NATO’s unity during the Russian war with Ukraine got a major boost from Monday’s breakthrough in securing Turkey’s backing to allow Sweden into the alliance. 

Turkey had delayed Stockholm’s accession to NATO for more than a year, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan appeared to move the goalposts earlier Monday by linking Sweden’s NATO accession to Turkey’s decades-long bid to join the European Union.  

But a breakthrough was announced Monday by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who said Erdoğan agreed to forward Sweden’s accession protocol for ratification in the Turkish parliament. 

“This is a historic step which makes all NATO allies stronger and safer,” Stoltenberg tweeted.  

Among Sweden’s commitment in the deal is to increase economic relations with Turkey, to enhance cooperation on fighting terrorism, and to support Ankara’s bid to join the EU. 

While nothing is final, Erdoğan’s decision before an expected bilateral meeting with Biden is a significant diplomatic victory for Biden.  

But there are other issues of disunity within NATO that surround the summit — chiefly Ukraine’s entry into the organization.   

Biden, along with Germany — the two largest contributors to NATO — have spoken out against committing to a clear path for Ukraine’s accession, raising concerns about admitting a country at war. The two nations have also called for Kyiv to make more progress on democratic reforms and focus on fulfilling its accession to the European Union.  

But in a surprise move, France has sided with eastern European allies calling for the alliance to provide solid commitments for Ukraine to join NATO. 

“We will have to design the path to make concrete Ukraine’s accession to NATO that was opened in 2008 in Bucharest,” French President Emmanuel Macron said alongside Stoltenberg in Paris late last month. 

Biden will deliver a major address in Vilnius, Lithuania, on Wednesday to wrap up the summit, which comes against the backdrop of his reelection bid. Biden won election in 2020 while promoting himself as a steady hand in foreign policy and has sought to live up to that pledge through his response to Russia’s invasion.  

Holding NATO together is Biden’s north star, what he views as the only guarantee to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from expanding his aggression in Ukraine to other European countries and beyond.  

“I believe Putin has had an overwhelming objective, from the time he launched 185,000 troops into Ukraine, and that was to break NATO,” Biden said in an interview with CNN on Sunday. “So holding NATO together is really critical.” 

Biden’s success on bridging the divide on Ukraine — between showing support for Kyiv while holding back a guaranteed pathway to full membership — will be revealed in a joint statement to be released at the end of the summit.  

“I’m sure the drafters are working, as we speak, to come up with a communique language that says something like, ‘Well not now, but soon,’” said Jim Townsend, adjunct senior fellow in the Transatlantic Security Program with the Center for a New American Security. “What we say in the communique will be really important.”  

Even with this divide, NATO’s 31 members are expected to agree to a multiyear package of assistance for Ukraine and upgraded political ties to allow Kyiv to call a meeting of NATO members when necessary.  

The U.S. presidential election is also hanging over the summit and NATO’s future. Former President Trump, the leading candidate for the GOP presidential nomination, has signaled a starkly different tact from Biden on Ukraine and global alliances more generally. 

Trump has promised to end the Russia-Ukraine war within a day of reentering the White House, raising fears that he will push to cede Ukrainian territory to Russia. And when Trump was president, he held back from fully endorsing the U.S. commitment to NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense provision, something that scares many European leaders. 

“There is concern about that, everyone was hoping that Trump was a one-off. Here he’s coming back like a zombie,” Townsend said.

“It’s something that’s spoken in hushed tones in the hallways, usually prefaced by, ‘What do you think are the odds?’” 

Biden has also worked to keep up support for Ukraine at home. His message of building global unity in the fight for democracy is likely to be a key part of his 2024 campaign, contrasting with what the administration sees as isolationist positions from Trump and other Republicans.  

“I think we’re putting the world together in a way that is going to make things significantly … more secure for people,” he said in the CNN interview. 

“I just want to finish the job. And I think we can do that in the next six years.” 

Alex Gangitano contributed.