Prigozhin plane crash shrouded in mystery

A private plane allegedly carrying Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin crashed about 100 miles from Moscow on Wednesday, raising many questions with few immediate answers.

Russia’s civil aviation authority confirmed Prigozhin was on the business jet that crashed, citing a list of passengers, but there has been no other confirmation of his death. 

President Biden speculated within hours of the news that Russian President Vladimir Putin may have been behind the crash, which came two months after Prigozhin led a short-lived mutiny against the Kremlin. 

Here is everything we know so far about the plane crash.

Has Prigozhin’s death been confirmed?

Russian state-run media outlets have reported the business jet, which was on its way to St. Petersburg from Moscow, crashed in the region of Tver, killing 10 people.

Three of the people on board the plane were crew members and seven were passengers.

Among the list of passengers is Prigozhin and Wagner Group commander Dmitry Utkin, Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency confirmed on Wednesday. 

Independent Russian news outlet Readovka reported Prigozhin may have been on another flight that was expected to land in Moscow on Wednesday. But later Wednesday, the outlet said Prigozhin died in the plane crash.

Multiple independent Russian sources are reporting Prigozhin died, along with Utkin.

However, U.S. officials have not publicly confirmed his death. 

What caused the crash?

The crash is under investigation by Russian agencies, with the details of the incident largely unknown.

Video circulating on the internet shows the plane suddenly plummeting out of the sky before splintering onto a field in burning pieces.

Independent Russian sources claim two explosions were heard before the plane descended, which may indicate air defenses shot it out of the sky.

Wagner-affiliated channels are claiming the jet was shot out of the sky by Russian air defenses. None of these claims have been confirmed.

What are Wagner-affiliated sources saying?

Several Wagner-affiliated Telegram channels are reporting Prigozhin died in the plane crash.

“The head of the Wagner Group, Hero of Russia, a true patriot of his Motherland, Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin, died as a result of the actions of traitors to Russia,” the general Wagner Group account posted. “But even in Hell he will be the best!”

The account Reverse Side of the Medal said Russia “today has lost its military elite.”

“Not the one that buys itself a title and positions, but the one that had no equal on the battlefield,” a post on the channel said. “This is a great loss for all patriots.”

On Telegram, Wagner accounts were sharing pictures and videos of Prigozhin to mourn him.

Readovka reported late Wednesday that Wagner officers are holding a council meeting to discuss their next steps. 

The mercenary group is not currently involved in fighting in Ukraine; however, some of its members have likely joined Russia’s military after the abandoned rebellion. 

How are the US and Ukraine responding?

The U.S. and Ukraine have been monitoring the situation.

President Biden, who is on vacation in Lake Tahoe, Calif., told reporters Wednesday he was “not surprised” by the news.

“There’s not much that happens in Russia that Putin is not behind,” Biden said.

Ukrainian presidential office adviser Mykhailo Podolyak wrote that Priogzhin signed a “special death warrant” when he marched on Moscow with thousands of fighters in June before halting the advance and agreeing to a reported truce with Putin. 

“It is obvious that Putin does not forgive anyone for his own bestial terror,” Podolyak wrote on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.

The U.S. has previously distanced itself from the internal dealings of Russia, with Washington publicly stating in June it had nothing to do with Prigozhin’s failed rebellion.

In Ukraine, it’s unlikely that Prigozhin’s death will change the calculus of the war, where Russian and Ukrainian forces are locked in a grinding war of attrition. 

What’s next?

Russian emergency authorities are currently responding to the crash and have opened an investigation into the incident.

Russian military bloggers reported authorities have formed a special commission to probe the crash. Blogger Colonel Cassad wrote on Telegram the commission is collecting information on the training of the crew, the state of the aircraft and the weather conditions before the crash.

It also is planning to review the black box of the aircraft, which contains flight and audio recordings. 

Whatever emerges from those probes is likely to be met with skepticism outside Russia, given the sensitivity of the crash for the Kremlin. 

The U.S. has often leaked its intelligence assessments of attacks in Russia within weeks of events taking place. 

Wagner Group is also expected to release a statement on its response pending confirmation of Prigozhin’s death, according to Readovka.