Israel’s war on Hamas poses major test for US-led Abraham Accords

Arab nations are publicly isolating Israel as it responds to Hamas’s unprecedented terrorist attack, testing the boundaries of the U.S. led-Abraham Accords that was meant to usher in a new era of peace in the region.

But American lawmakers argue the accords — brokered during the Trump administration that established ties between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in 2020 — are still an important step toward Israel’s integration in the region. And they still think the ultimate goal, a breakthrough on ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, is possible.

Democrats and Republicans are pointing to Iran — the financial and military backer of Hamas — as the overarching threat, the glue binding the countries that signed the accords, and potentially motivation for more countries to join. 

“Every single country said, ‘Please don’t leave us, we are worried about the threat from Iran,’” Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) told The Hill, about her experience leading the first-ever Abraham Accords caucus trip to Morocco, Bahrain, UAE, and Israel.  

“I believe as we move on a little bit further, we will be able to work together because everyone is worried about that terrorist threat.” 

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) was in Saudi Arabia on the weekend of Oct. 7, the day Hamas launched its attack on Israel, meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman about the future of a ground-breaking peace agreement with Israel. 

“We had left the meeting the night before with such optimism, and then when we found out about the attacks on Israel, it really struck us that this has just made our task that much harder,” she told The Hill.

“Obviously we were very sad about what was happening in Israel, the dynamics in the Middle East are very difficult, very difficult … it just really was difficult for us to face that next day knowing that, where we thought we were making advances, now it’s probably going to be on hold for just a bit.” 

U.S. officials have said there is no direct evidence of Iran’s involvement in the terrorist attack against Israel. But some experts and lawmakers theorize that Hamas and its patron Iran are seeking to rupture rapidly advancing agreements between Israel and its Arab neighbors.

“Literally, we have the Abraham Accords moving with Morocco, with UAE and Bahrain, continued engagement, normalization in the region, and Hamas determines this is against their self-interest, and they literally slaughter 1,400 individuals to try and deter all of that dialogue,” Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) said. 

Hamas’s attack was months in the planning, reportedly consisting of detailed intelligence of secret Israeli army installations along the Gaza Strip and that culminated in the brutal killing of civilians at a music festival and in the communities in the area. 

Hamas is holding more than 200 people it took from Israel as hostages in the Gaza Strip. And Israel estimates 1,400 were killed — with bodies still being identified, some burned or mutilated beyond identification. 

Condemnations surrounding Hamas’s assault quickly came out from the U.S. and other Western and democratic countries. And in a sign that the Abraham Accords had shifted things slightly in the region, the UAE condemned Hamas publicly as launching attacks against Israel. 

“To me it is actually quite remarkable,” said Ghaith al-Omari, a senior fellow with The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “If you look at the statements of Abraham Accord countries, UAE and Bahrain specifically condemn Hamas. Morocco made a less explicit statement but a quick statement that was also quite strong, and that was a really marked difference from some of the other Arab countries.”

But al-Omari, speaking to The Hill Wednesday morning, warned that quickly changing developments on the ground often frustrate the best efforts at diplomacy. 

Later that day, an explosion occurred at a hospital in Gaza, killing and wounding hundreds. Arab nations surrounding Israel quickly and unequivocally blamed the Israel for carrying out an attack.

Israel rejected blame and released intelligence assessments — which have since been supported by the U.S. — saying a misfired rocket launched from the Gaza Strip by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad landed on the hospital. 

“Everybody here believes that Israel is responsible for it. The Israeli army says it is not. But to be honest, try and find anybody that’s going to believe it in this part of the world,” Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said in an interview with CNN. 

Protests against Israel have intensified in the Middle East and worldwide as Palestinian civilian casualties from Israeli airstrikes increase, giving fuel to the entrenched, historical view in the region of Israel as an occupier and aggressor.  

After the Gaza hospital explosion, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, along with the leaders of Jordan and Egypt, called off a summit with President Biden the day before he was set to leave for the region, saying they could not participate in a meeting they didn’t believe would end the war. 

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), a member of the Abraham Accords caucus, said the reaction from the Arab world was not “unexpected.” But he said the utility of the accords should not necessarily be viewed in terms of Arab support for Israel, but in Arab efforts to prevent Israel’s war against Hamas from expanding into a wider conflict, in particular with Iran. 

​​”Everything’s relative here, right? So far, this hasn’t expanded to a bigger conflict. And one of our goals here is to make sure that it doesn’t, make sure that Iran doesn’t get involved, that Hezbollah [in Lebanon], that this doesn’t expand to a conflict in the north of Israel. And so far that’s the case.”

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) speaks to reporters on his recent trip to Ukraine on Wednesday, September 20, 2023.

In his prime-time address Thursday night, Biden made the case for U.S. leadership in supporting Israel and supporting Ukraine in its defensive war against Russian President Vladimir Putin as part of limiting the spread of a bigger war.

“If we walk away and let Putin erase Ukraine’s independence, would-be aggressors around the world would be emboldened to try the same. The risk of conflict and chaos could spread in other parts of the world, in the Indo-Pacific, in the Middle East, especially in the Middle East,” he said. 

“Iran is supporting Russia in Ukraine, and it’s supporting Hamas and other terrorist groups in the region. And we’ll continue to hold them accountable, I might add.”

Biden has directed two U.S. carrier strike groups to the Mediterranean as a show of force to deter Iran and its proxies in the region from instigating a larger war with Israel as it focuses on eliminating the threat from Hamas. 

The Pentagon said Thursday that a U.S. navy destroyer had intercepted missiles and several drones shot by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen toward Israel. 

The U.S. has also thwarted drone and missile attacks on its bases in Iraq, without assigning responsibility. But there’s concern that Iranian-backed militias in Iraq are working to attack the U.S. for its support of Israel. 

Sen. James Risch (R-Idaho), the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said he believes that rapprochement between Israel and its Arab neighbors “struck the match” for the Hamas attack on Israel. Risch, along with other GOP lawmakers, have called out Iran as the party overall responsible for Hamas’s terrorism.  

“The Iranians are using Arab allies, namely Hamas and [Palestinian Islamic Jihad] and Hezbollah as their agents to foment this, there’s no question about it,” he said. 

Risch had met with Crown Prince Mohammed earlier this year and said he has plans to meet with the Saudis again to talk about establishing relations with Israel.

Saudi Arabia holds massive military, financial and spiritual influence in the region — as custodian to Islam’s most holy city, Mecca. Establishing relations with Israel would lead to a tectonic shift in attitudes in the region.

“If there is, and I think there will be eventually, normality between Israel and Saudi Arabia, this is going to put Iran on an island, and they can’t stand that,” Risch said