Russia-Ukraine talks reach pivotal moment for Trump

U.S. efforts to mediate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are reaching a pivotal moment, with President Trump saying both sides need to quickly show progress or his administration will exit the negotiations.

Trump, in remarks from the White House, didn’t lay out a specific timeline for a U.S. exit but said it could happen quickly.

“If for some reason one of the two parties makes it very difficult, we’re just going to say you’re foolish, you’re fools, you’re horrible people and we’re going to just take a pass,” Trump said. 

It’s not clear exactly what that would mean, though it would seem to risk U.S. support for Ukraine.

“I’m not going to say that, because I think we’re going to get it done,” Trump said, referring to reaching a peace deal. On the campaign trail, he vowed to strike such a deal in his first 24 hours in office.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio earlier Friday signaled a possible U.S. exit, and suggested that Ukrainian and Russian officials have about a week to huddle in their capitals and respond to a U.S. peace proposal — the details of which are not public. 

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said another round of talks between the Americans, Europeans and Ukrainians would take place in London next week. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for recognition of Russian sovereignty over five territories in Ukraine that his country only partially controls and repeated that it wants to address the “root causes” of the war — a catchall term experts say boils down to Putin’s call for Ukraine’s demilitarization and subjugation to Russia’s sphere of influence. 

Ukraine has rejected those terms while signaling a willingness to freeze the line of combat. Rubio conceded Ukraine does need assurances that it could defend itself going forward if Russia renewed its aggression after a peace deal was signed. 

“Ukraine — in order for there to be peace, we recognize that Ukraine has to feel like it has the ability to defend itself from a future attack from anyone. … But we’re not working yet on that level of specifics,” Rubio said.

Ukraine also knows Trump could drop U.S. support at anytime.

Trump earlier this year shut off U.S. military assistance and intelligence sharing for nearly two weeks in the wake of an explosive Oval Office spat with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was arguing Putin was a deceptive negotiating partner. 

Since then, Ukraine has increasingly sought to be cooperative and productive with the Trump administration.

After a meeting with U.S. officials in Saudi Arabia at the end of March, Kyiv accepted without conditions the U.S. plan for a ceasefire on energy infrastructure and in the Black Sea. Moscow has so far refused those terms and in recent days carried out devastating attacks against civilians in the Ukrainian cities of Kryvyi Rih and Sumy. Those attacks coincided with the Easter holidays. 

“So much for Russia’s ‘traditional Christian values.’ It is against the Lord, any faith, and any human values to strike an ordinary pastry shop, murder an entrepreneur, and destroy Easter bread,” Ukraine Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha posted on the social platform X, alongside photos of a destroyed pastry shop in the city of Sumy that was hit by a Russian drone Friday. “This is the evil we are dealing with every day.” 

Trump, when asked if Russia is stalling, said he would know soon.

“I hope not. We’re going to let you know about that soon if he is. But I hope not.”

The administration’s rhetoric appears to put equal blame on Ukraine and Russia – even as Moscow has rejected Trump’s earlier proposal for a temporary ceasefire. 

“Rubio’s remarks this morning threw me, I will admit, because he seemed to be equidistant in blaming both Russia and Ukraine for the stalled progress,” said Daniel Fried, Weiser Family Distinguished Fellow with the Atlantic Council and a veteran American diplomat to Europe. “Whereas, in fact, Russia is responsible for the lack of progress. Russia alone.” 

Trump has elevated Putin in the negotiations, a sharp turn from former President Biden’s effort to isolate the alleged war criminal. Trump has largely complimented the authoritarian Russian leader and dispatched his most trusted confidant, Steve Witkoff, to conduct face-to-face discussions in Moscow. 

Ukraine’s supporters, deeply skeptical of Putin’s commitment to peace, say now is the time for Trump to pressure Russia, given its own fears about the global economy. 

“The price of oil is low because of fears of a recession; Russia’s economic position is even more vulnerable. Take advantage, man! Gift from the gods,” Fried exclaimed. “They’re hurting. Therefore, let them know we know, and start rolling out the options or leaking the options to really hold them over the fire on energy.”

The U.S., European Union and members of the Group of 7 nations imposed a $60 price cap on Russian oil as part of its sanctions over its war in Ukraine. But recently the price of Russian crude oil, called Urals, has dipped close to $50 per barrel. 

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a close Trump ally and vocal Ukraine supporter, has legislation waiting in the wings to codify U.S. sanctions on Russia. 

“Putin and peace apparently do not fit in the same sentence,” Graham posted on X, responding to Russia’s Easter Sunday attack on Sumy. 

“My new bill to impose sanctions and secondary tariffs against Russia now has 55 cosponsors in the U.S. Senate. Unless there is a dramatic change soon, it is obvious to me that the only hope of ending this war is to continue to cripple Russia’s economy and punish those who prop up Putin.”

Still, though Ukraine enjoys bipartisan majority in Congress in its fight with Russia, there’s an understanding that Trump is likely to never ask for another assistance package to aid Ukraine. Between 2022 and 2024, Congress appropriated $174.19 billion to Ukraine through five different legislative vehicles.

About $96 billion in appropriated American assistance is left, according to the special inspector general conducting oversight of U.S. assistance to Ukraine.

Europe cannot make up what the U.S. had been providing militarily if it stopped today. But a “coalition of the willing” met in Brussels on April 10 and pledged nearly $24 billion in new military aid, and Germany is paving the way for increasing its defense spending and military assistance to Ukraine.

Fried said Trump has an enormous opportunity to claim victory in the war but will need to put more pressure on Putin to get there.

“If his deal involves getting a ceasefire and security for Ukraine and getting the Europeans to pony up the bulk of the resources for security, he can claim a double victory,” Fried said.

“But to do that, he’s got to stare down Putin instead of constantly buttering him up or having Witkoff go there with bouquets.”