US prepares for post-Merkel era

The United States will soon find itself working with a German government that for the first time in 16 years is not led by Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Elections on Sept. 26 will lead to the formation of a new government, as Merkel steps down after leading the country since 2005, spanning four U.S. presidential administrations.

The new leadership, which will be a coalition of different parties, will inherit a transatlantic relationship that now focuses largely on international security, trade and climate change.

“The United States wants and needs an economically strong and politically stable Germany that is committed to NATO and the EU. The ideal coalition will have clear policies with regard to NATO, Russia, and China and a decisive mandate to act alongside its allies and partners,” said Rachel Ellehuus, deputy director of the Europe program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

The elections come at a critical point in the bilateral relationship between the U.S. and Germany. The Biden administration is working to regain U.S. footing on the international stage after four years of the Trump administration, but issues such as U.S. sanctions for Nord Stream 2, the travel ban, continued steel and aluminum tariffs and the handling of the withdrawal from Afghanistan are posing challenges.

“The question for the U.S. government will be which areas of common interests it will be able to develop and how differences can be managed constructively,” said Jeffrey Rathke, president of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies at Johns Hopkins University. 

According to the latest polls, no two-party alliance is likely to achieve a majority in the German Federal Parliament, or Bundestag.

The Social Democrats are leading the polls with 25 to 27 percent support — as much as 5 percentage points ahead of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party. If those numbers hold, Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz would become chancellor.

Scholz has sometimes been described as the “Biden candidate” for his moderate views and long-term political career.

His closest competitors are Armin Laschet — a member of Merkel’s party and governor of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state — and Annalena Baerbock of the Green party.

“Most parties have affirmed the centrality of NATO. There are, however, questions as to whether Germany will maintain its NATO commitment to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense and continue to support NATO’s nuclear sharing policy,” Ellehuus said.

A coalition government that includes the Green party could lead to a tougher line with Russia and China, and Baerbock is the only candidate opposing Nord Stream 2, the gas pipeline widely criticized in the U.S. that runs from Russia to Europe and is slated to go online Oct. 1, just days after the German elections.

“The Greens have the toughest proposal to Russia and a very value-driven agenda which places human rights and democracy on top – and many people in Washington are aware of this,” Rathke said.

The eventual coalition government, however, could take months to form, as was the case in 2017.

Merkel, 67, said she will be stepping down from government for good after the transition to the new government and is looking to take a break before making her next move.

During her last official visit to the U.S., in July, Merkel joked that after leaving government she will “not accept the next invitation right away because I’m afraid I have nothing to do and nobody wants me anymore.”

President Biden bid Merkel farewell during her visit to Washington.

“On a personal note, I must tell you I will miss seeing you at our summits,” he said as he stood next to Merkel at a White House press conference. “I truly will.”