COVID-19 death toll in India grossly understated: New York Times analysis

A New York Times analysis of health data from India’s COVID-19 crisis indicated that the country’s death toll is likely much higher than has been reported, and may have reached the millions.

The analysis, published Wednesday, found that as many as 600,000 patients have actually died from COVID-19 in India, based on conservative estimates that include the country’s reported death toll.

The country has reported more than 300,000 deaths, while the Times estimated another 300,000 have died with suspected but unconfirmed COVID-19 infections.

The newspaper said that it is more likely that around 1.6 million Indians have died from COVID-19 since the pandemic began, a staggering number that would leapfrog Brazil and the U.S., the only two countries with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than India.

Health experts interviewed by the Times said that in a worst-case estimate, as many as 4.2 million could already be dead due to the disease in a country of 1.4 billion people.

The figures’ accuracy is unconfirmed by any Indian health officials and is based wholly on available data added to figures that estimate how many deaths are continuing to happen under health officials’ radar.

Complicating counting efforts by officials are the country’s remote regions, including conflict-ravaged Kashmir, and the near-total collapse of India’s health system, which has led to many unable to be tested or receive treatment for COVID-19 after falling very ill.

President Biden and other world leaders have faced increased pressure to offer more global aid to poorer countries struggling with COVID-19 amid the latest surge of cases in India. The U.S. announced a wave of aid to India including tests and oxygen cylinders in late April, though the country still faces shortages.

The Biden administration also moved to ban nonessential travel from India as the rate of new cases across the country continues to surge.