FBI analysis from 2020 warned extremists ‘very willing to take action’ over disputed election: report

An FBI analysis conducted ahead of the 2020 election found that violent extremists were “very willing to take action” in response to a disputed election, NBC News reported.

NBC obtained a redacted copy of an FBI report titled “Alternative Analysis: Potential Scenarios for Reactions of Domestic Violent Extremists to a Disputed 2020 US Presidential Election” through a Freedom of Information Act request.

The report noted that while there were extremists who could take action, the “law enforcement preemption” and the “disorganization” of those groups would “hinder widespread violence.”

“In response to a disputed election, [Domestic Violent Extremists] are very willing to take action, but their capabilities to do so remain low, largely due to disorganization and law enforcement pressure,” the report stated.

NBC noted that the report did not mention former President Trump, adding that it was published before the former president told the Proud Boys, a far-right extremist group, to “stand back and stand by” during a debate with President Biden.

Numerous members of the Proud Boys have now been convicted and sentenced in connection to their tole in orchestrating attacks on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. 

NBC said that the summary said that the “less likely” scenario was that extremists would be “very willing to take action and very capable of carrying out a wide array of violent activity.”

The report, which was compiled by the FBI’s Intelligence Council, Counterterrorism Division and Boston Field Office, also stated that a “less likely” situation was that domestic extremist groups would be “very capable, but they have low willingness to carry out near-term attacks” in response to disputes over an election.

“The exercise concluded that [domestic violent extremists] capabilities and willingness to take action likely would drive their reactions to a disputed election result, compounded with underlying grievances related to COVID-19 mitigation measures and racial justice tensions,” a summary in the report read, according to NBC.

“Under this alternative analysis, law enforcement preemption and lack of coordination between [domestic violent extremists] likely would hinder widespread violence, though [domestic violent extremists] engaging in uncoordinated acts of violence remain a threat,” it continued.

The Hill has reached out to the FBI for comment.