Experts are predicting generative artificial intelligence (AI) and automation could take more jobs from women than men in the next decade, according to a new study from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI).
The report, released Wednesday, predicts nearly 30 percent of hours currently worked across the U.S. could be automated by 2030, as generative AI continues to develop its natural language capabilities and apply to a wider set of occupations.
The report notes some jobs including those in the STEM, creative and business and legal sectors will be enhanced by AI while others like office support, customer service and food service industry could continue to take a hit as technology advances.
The shift has already become apparent, and experts argue the recent years of job shifts are a preview of trends expected through the end of the decade. The report found over half of the 8.6 million recent employees leaving jobs in the office support and customer service industries — both sectors with heavy women representation — according to the report. Experts predict these industries will continue to see decreased demand in the coming years, with women 1.5 times more likely needing to move into new occupations than men.
Experts predict another 10 out of the 12 million occupational shifts predicted by 2030 will be made of people leaving roles in the same shrinking industries of office support, customer service and sales, food services and production work. These include jobs like clerks, administrative assistants, retail salesperson and cashiers, involving repetitive tasks, data collection and processing which can be handled by automation.
The report noted Black and Hispanic workers are also highly concentrated within some of these decreasing fields.
As for why we could see these fields continue to take a hit, the report cites a reduced need for customer-facing roles “affected by the shift to e-commerce and office support roles that could be eliminated either by automation or fewer people coming into the physical office.”
The report follows numerous research studies focused on how artificial intelligence could impact future workforce numbers. McKinsey researchers previously predicted without generative AI, automation could take over tasks accounting for 21.5 percent of the hours worked in the U.S. economy by 2030. With generative AI, the prediction jumped to 29.5 percent of hours by 2030.
The report said research doesn’t lead to the conclusion that generative AI “might wipe out jobs,” but will likely “significantly change,” the “mix of activities” for workers. Those in sectors with shrinking demand may need to move into entirely new occupational categories, the report found.
While shedding light on how generative AI could change the workforce, the report also pointed to how generative AI could increase U.S. labor productivity and ease labor shortages.