The Hill Midterm Poll: District by district

ARIZONA-05

Independents breaking for Democratic incumbent

{mosads}Rep. Harry Mitchell (D-Ariz.) trails his Republican challenger, David Schweikert, by three points, 42 percent to 45, with 10 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

It’s a tough position for Mitchell, who beat Schweikert with 53 percent of the vote in 2008.

Mitchell’s saving grace may be independent voters. He’s leading among them by 16 points, and independents make up the largest bloc of undecided voters, which is a good sign for the incumbent in this Republican-leaning district.

Also, more independents approve of President Obama’s job performance (53 percent) than disapprove (46 percent). And since 72 percent of independents say Obama is an important factor in their vote, that could result in more support for Mitchell.

Schweikert leads among male voters, while Mitchell leads with females. Older voters tend to favor Schweikert, who’s been endorsed by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R).

Mitchell was one of then-Rep. Rahm Emanuel’s (D-Ill.) top recruits in 2006, when he defeated three-term GOP Rep. J.D. Hayworth.

There’s been heavy party spending in this district. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has spent about $744,000 in independent expenditures, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has spent around $571,000.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 12-14. The survey consisted of 408 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

ILLINOIS-14

Democrat down by one

Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.) is in a tough battle for his district. He trails Republican Randy Hultgren by one point, 42 percent to 43, with 12 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

Republicans have targeted this district since Foster won it in a special election after former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) resigned.

Hultgren, a state senator, could be hurt by low name recognition. The poll found 26 percent of likely voters weren’t familiar with Hultgren, compared with 11 percent who didn’t know Foster. And 27 percent of independents said they weren’t familiar with Hultgren.

Hultgren won a competitive Republican primary, beating Ethan Hastert, the son of the former Speaker, by 10 points. That primary, which garnered a lot of media attention, was one of the earliest in the cycle, taking place in February. The long time frame between the primary and election could account for Hultgren’s low voter recognition.

Among independent voters, 45 percent favor Foster, 39 percent favor Hultgren and 13 percent are undecided. Younger voters and female voters are leaning toward Foster, while Hultgren is popular among male and older voters.

President Obama carried this district, but 45 percent of voters said they disapproved of the job he’s doing. And 71 percent said the president would be a factor in their 2010 decision.

When asked about the change Obama brought to Washington, 35 percent said he brought change “for the worse,” 30 percent said he brought change “for the better” and 31 percent said nothing has changed.

Foster has brought in some executive-branch help, however, as first lady Michelle Obama has campaigned for him.

The NRCC has spent around $231,000 in independent expenditures, while the DCCC has spent around $252,000.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 9-12. The survey consisted of 406 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

ILLINOIS-17

Republican challenger ahead by seven points

Rep. Phil Hare (D-Ill.) is in trouble. He ran unopposed in 2008, but this cycle he trails the GOP candidate, Tea Party favorite Bobby Schilling, by seven points — 38 percent to Schilling’s 45 — and 14 percent of likely voters are undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

Perhaps even more troubling, 50 percent of independent voters support Schilling, while only 29 percent support Hare. Also among independents, 45 percent had a negative view of Hare, while only 18 percent had a negative view of Schilling, who’s never run for office and owns a pizza restaurant.

President Obama carried this district, and 57 percent of independents gave the president low marks.

Meanwhile, Hare trails by 17 points among male voters, while he only leads by two points among female voters. Schilling has a 20-point lead among middle-aged voters. Hare wins younger and older voters by a small margin.

Meanwhile, 95 percent of Republicans said they definitely will vote, while 84 percent of Democrats said the same.

And 38 percent of voters said Obama has brought change to Washington “for the worse,” while 25 percent said it was “for the better” and 34 percent said nothing has changed.

The NRCC has spent about $341,000 in independent expenditures, while the DCCC has spent around $599,000.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 12-14. The survey consisted of 417 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percent.

MISSISSIPPI-01

Blue Dog Democrat behind in GOP-leaning district

Blue Dog Democratic Rep. Travis Childers (Miss.) is in a tight race, trailing his Republican challenger by five points, 39 percent to 44, with 12 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

Childers’s party ties could hurt him in this district John McCain won by 24 points in 2008. Only 35 percent approve of the job President Obama is doing, while 63 percent disapprove. And 71 percent said the president will be an important factor when they go to the ballot box.

Plus, 59 percent of voters said the Democratic leadership in Congress was to the left of them, and only 21 percent described the leadership as “about where you are.”

Childers seems to acknowledge that reality. In a recent campaign ad, he notes he voted against Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) 267 times. He also voted against healthcare reform legislation.

Meanwhile, 39 percent of voters couldn’t come up with a compelling reason to vote for Democrats in November.

Republican Alan Nunnelee is winning independent voters with 48 percent of their support. He is also winning male voters and older voters. Childers leads among women and younger voters.

Childers first won the seat in a special election, after Roger Wicker was appointed to the Senate. Childers won reelection easily in 2008 — by 10 points.

Party spending has been heavy in this race.

The NRCC has spent about $667,000 in independent expenditures, while the DCCC has spent around $505,000.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 9-17. The survey consisted of 603 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

NEW HAMPSHIRE-01

Democratic incumbent trails by five

Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.) trails Republican candidate Frank Guinta by five points, 42 percent to 47, with 9 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

While Shea-Porter leads by eight points among female voters, Guinta has an even stronger lead among male voters: He wins them by 19 points.

Shea-Porter has a 45-point lead among young voters, while Guinta has a 15-point lead among middle-aged voters and leads among older voters by one point.

Guinta is also winning over independents: He gets 44 percent of their support compared to Shea-Porter’s 38. And 16 percent of independents say they are undecided.

Shea-Porter has a high unfavorability rating, at 50 percent, while Guinta’s unfavorables are at 33 percent. However, 20 percent of voters said they aren’t familiar with Guinta, while only 4 percent said that of Shea-Porter, who is the first woman to be elected to national office from New Hampshire.

Republicans lead in voter enthusiasm: Ninety-five percent said they will definitely vote, while 89 percent of Democrats said the same. And 90 percent of independents say they will definitely vote.

Meanwhile, 40 percent of voters could not give a compelling reason to vote for Democrats in November, while only 30 percent said the same of Republicans.

But Shea-Porter is used to tough races. She won in 2006 and 2008 with a little more than 50 percent of the vote.

Republicans are spending heavily to defeat her. The NRCC has spent about $703,000 in independent expenditures in the district.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 9-12. The survey consisted of 407 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

NEW YORK-19

All tied up

This is the first of two races The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll found to be in a tie.

Rep. John Hall (D-N.Y.) and his GOP challenger, Nan Hayworth, both received 43 percent of the vote, with 12 percent of likely voters undecided.

Hall leads by five points among women while Hayworth leads by five among men. Independents are breaking for Hayworth, with the ophthalmologist receiving 50 percent of their vote to Hall’s 35 percent. And 13 percent of independents are undecided.

Hall is doing well among Republican voters — he gets 12 percent of their support, while Hayworth only gets 9 percent of Democratic support. Hall also leads with younger voters and older voters, while Hayworth does better among middle-aged voters.

President Obama barely won this district in 2008, and only 42 percent approve of the job he’s doing, while 55 percent disapprove. And 79 percent disapprove of the job Congress is doing.

Thirty-five percent of voters couldn’t come up with a compelling reason to vote for Democrats in November, while 27 percent said the same of Republicans.

Hall voted for the trifecta of legislation the GOP is attacking Democrats for supporting: cap-and-trade; healthcare reform; and the economic stimulus.

Fifty-one percent of voters in this district said they think the Democratic leadership in Congress is to the left of them.

Hall won reelection in 2008 with a comfortable 59 percent.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 12-14. The survey consisted of 416 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percent.

NEW YORK-24

Dem incumbent leads in 2008 rematch

Republican Richard Hanna lost to Rep. Michael Arcuri (D-N.Y.) by four points in 2008, and now he trails Arcuri by 10 points in The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

Arcuri receives 47 percent to Hanna’s 37, with 15 percent of likely voters undecided. Arcuri posts strong numbers among Republicans — he gets 19 percent of their support — and does well with independents, getting 46 percent of their support to Hanna’s 27. Arcuri has a 17-point lead among females and a four-point lead among males. He also posts strong numbers with young and older voters, while Hanna does well among middle-aged voters.

Arcuri benefits from high favorability  ratings: Fifty-two percent approve of the job he’s doing, compared to 29 percent who disapprove. And Hanna, despite being the 2008 nominee, has low name ID: Seventeen percent of voters said they weren’t familiar with him.

One thing apparently not hurting Arcuri is Congress’s approval ratings, which are dismal in this district: Only 22 percent approve of the job it’s doing, while 74 percent disapprove.

The NRCC has spent about $217,000 in independent expenditures, while the DCCC has spent around $499,000.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 12-14. The survey consisted of 400 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

PENNSYLVANIA-08

Democratic incumbent leads over former GOP lawmaker

Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.) holds a three-point lead over Republican candidate Michael Fitzpatrick, 46 percent to 43, with 10 percent of likely voters undecided, in The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

Murphy is losing independent voters by five points, but he makes that up with 13 percent of Republican support. Fitzpatrick is only getting 8 percent of Democratic support.

Murphy is also doing well among females, leading by 12 percent in that demographic. Fitzpatrick wins male voters.

Fitzpatrick, who represented the district for one term after winning the 2004 election, has a high name ID, with only 8 percent of voters saying they’re not familiar with him.

This could be a close race. The last time the two men faced one another, in 2006, Murphy won by a little more than 1,500 votes. Voters approve of the job he’s doing, with 53 percent giving him a favorable rating to a 36 percent unfavorable. Fitzpatrick gets 50 percent approval marks, with 35 percent rating him negatively.

Murphy won reelection in 2008 with 57 percent. He is the first Iraq war veteran to serve in Congress and is one of its youngest members. Vice President Joe Biden has campaigned for him.

Republicans are investing in defeating Murphy. The NRCC has spent about $204,000 in independent expenditures in the district.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 9-12. The survey consisted of 398 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

PENNSYLVANIA-10

Another race all tied up

This is the second race The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll found to be in a tie.

Blue Dog Rep. Chris Carney (D-Pa.) and Republican Thomas Marino both receive 41 percent, with 16 percent of likely voters undecided.

And Carney is getting 13 percent of the Republican vote in this GOP-leaning district. Independents also favor the incumbent, with Carney receiving 49 percent of their support to Marino’s 30.

In a twist from the other districts, the Democratic Carney is leading among male voters, while the Republican Marino is leading with female voters.

Younger voters are breaking for Carney, but the race gets tighter with middle-aged and older voters. Middle-aged voters are split 39-39 on whom to support, while Marino leads by one point among older voters.

Both President Obama and Congress get low marks from voters in this district: Fifty-nine percent disapprove of the job the president is doing, while 80 percent disapprove of the job Congress is doing.

And 42 percent say Obama has brought change to Washington “for the worse,” while 23 percent say it’s “for the better” and 31 percent say nothing has changed.

Carney voted for the healthcare reform bill, but made sure the legislation didn’t contain government funding of abortions. He has not shied away from his ties to the administration. Vice President Biden has been to Pennsylvania to campaign for him.

He was listed as vulnerable in 2008 but won reelection with 56 percent of the vote. The NRCC has spent about $674,000 in independent expenditures, while the DCCC has spent around $182,000.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 12-14. The survey consisted of 406 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

WISCONSIN-08

Democratic incumbent down by one

In this nail-biter of a race, Rep. Steve Kagen (D-Wis.) trails his Republican opponent, Reid Ribble, by one point, 44 percent to 45, with 10 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

Each candidate has locked up his party’s support, and independents are breaking slightly for Kagen, 43 percent to 40, with 15 percent of independents undecided.

Kagen leads by 14 points among females, while Ribble leads by 17 points among males. Ribble is winning younger and middle-aged voters while Kagen does well among older voters.

Voters seem divided on what to think of their congressman: Forty-four percent approved, while 45 percent disapproved. Ribble gets better ratings — 44 percent approval to 38 percent disapproval — though 12 percent said they’re not familiar with the GOP candidate.

Congress gets low marks: Sixty-nine percent disapprove of the institution. And voters also give the president low marks: Only 43 percent approve of the job he’s doing, while 55 percent disapprove.

Meanwhile, 42 percent of voters said President Obama has brought change to Washington “for the worse,” while only 27 percent said the president brought change “for the better,” and 31 percent think nothing has changed. Also, 36 percent said they “don’t know” a compelling reason to vote for Democrats, while 26 percent said that of the GOP.

When Kagen won the seat in 2006, it was the most expensive congressional race in Wisconsin history and was dominated by attack ads. He won reelection in 2008 with 54 percent, becoming only the second Democrat ever to win reelection in this district. No Democrat has won a third term.

Democrats are spending to help Kagen. The DCCC has put about $65,232 in independent expenditures into this race, while the NRCC has spent about $359,000.

Kagen voted with Democrats on the economic stimulus bill, the cap-and-trade bill and healthcare reform. Vice President Biden has campaigned for him.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 12-14. The survey consisted of 415 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percent.

The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll Stories WEEK 3 – Majority says no “change” under Obama, or change for the worse – Media has gotten more partisan, likely voters say in poll – Democrats twice as likely as GOPers to consider their party too extreme – Pelosi ‘majority makers’ are facing electoral peril – Only 1-in-4 see American Dream as still there for all – Voters are not worried about ‘extreme’ label on candidates – District by district – Data: The numbers the stories are based on – Editorial: Election tides	District by district results Arizona Illinois Mississippi New Hampshire New York Pennsylvania Wisconsin
The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll Stories WEEK 2 – Voters more likely to see Dems as dominated by extremists – Independents prefer cutting the deficit to spending on jobs – Democrats have edge on question of extending Bush tax cuts – Republicans are up in 8 of 10 open House seats – After forty Dem years, Obey’s seat in jeopardy – Majority of voters say they want a viable third party – District by district – Data: The numbers the stories are based on – Editorial: The results so far	District by district results Arkansas Illinois West Virginia Hawaii New Hampshire Pennsylvania Michigan Tennessee Washington
The Hill/ANGA 2010 Midterm Election Poll Stories WEEK 1 – Voters: Nancy Pelosi did not drain swamp – Tea Party is firing up the Democrats – Republican voters more ‘passionate’ about voting in the midterm election – About the poll – GOP leads widely, Dems in danger but races tight – Feelings about Obama make midterms a national election – Independents prefer divided government, lean Republican – Distaste for healthcare law crosses party lines – Editorial: Knowing who will win	District by district results Arizona Colorado Illinois Maryland Michigan Nevada New Mexico Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia