District by district – Arizona

by The Hill Staff - 10/20/10 3:00 AM ET

ARIZONA-05

Independents breaking for Democratic incumbent

{mosads}Rep. Harry Mitchell (D-Ariz.) trails his Republican challenger,
David Schweikert, by three points, 42 percent to 45, with 10 percent of
likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election
Poll.

It’s a tough position for Mitchell, who beat Schweikert with 53 percent of the vote in 2008.

Mitchell’s saving grace may be independent voters. He’s leading
among them by 16 points, and independents make up the largest bloc of
undecided voters, which is a good sign for the incumbent in this
Republican-leaning district.

Also, more independents approve of President Obama’s job performance
(53 percent) than disapprove (46 percent). And since 72 percent of
independents say Obama is an important factor in their vote, that could
result in more support for Mitchell.

Schweikert
leads among male voters, while Mitchell leads with females. Older
voters tend to favor Schweikert, who’s been endorsed by former Alaska
Gov. Sarah Palin (R).

Mitchell was one of then-Rep. Rahm Emanuel’s (D-Ill.) top recruits in 2006, when he defeated three-term GOP Rep. J.D. Hayworth.

There’s been heavy party spending in this district. The National
Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has spent about $744,000 in
independent expenditures, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign
Committee (DCCC) has spent around $571,000.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 12-14. The
survey consisted of 408 phone interviews among likely voters and has a
margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 3

– Majority says no “change” under Obama, or change for the worse

– Media has gotten more partisan, likely voters say in poll

– Democrats twice as likely as GOPers to consider their party too extreme

– Pelosi ‘majority makers’ are facing electoral peril
– Only 1-in-4 see American Dream as still there for all
– Voters are not worried about ‘extreme’ label on candidates
– District by district
– Data: The numbers the stories are based on
– Editorial: Election tides

District by
district results

Arizona
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The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 2

– Voters more likely to see Dems as dominated by extremists
– Independents prefer cutting the deficit to spending on jobs
– Democrats have edge on question of extending Bush tax cuts
– Republicans are up in 8 of 10 open House seats
– After forty Dem years, Obey’s seat in jeopardy
– Majority of voters say they want a viable third party
– District by district
– Data: The numbers the stories are based on
– Editorial: The results so far