District by district – Wisconsin

by The Hill Staff - 10/20/10 3:00 AM ET

WISCONSIN-08

Democratic incumbent down by one

In this nail-biter of a race, Rep. Steve Kagen (D-Wis.) trails his
Republican opponent, Reid Ribble, by one point, 44 percent to 45, with
10 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010
Midterm Election Poll.

{mosads}Each candidate has locked up his party’s support, and independents
are breaking slightly for Kagen, 43 percent to 40, with 15 percent of
independents undecided.

Kagen
leads by 14 points among females, while Ribble leads by 17 points among
males. Ribble is winning younger and middle-aged voters while Kagen
does well among older voters.

Voters seem divided on what to think of their congressman:
Forty-four percent approved, while 45 percent disapproved. Ribble gets
better ratings — 44 percent approval to 38 percent disapproval — though
12 percent said they’re not familiar with the GOP candidate.

Congress gets low marks: Sixty-nine percent disapprove of the
institution. And voters also give the president low marks: Only 43
percent approve of the job he’s doing, while 55 percent disapprove.

Meanwhile, 42 percent of voters said President Obama has brought
change to Washington “for the worse,” while only 27 percent said the
president brought change “for the better,” and 31 percent think nothing
has changed. Also, 36 percent said they “don’t know” a compelling
reason to vote for Democrats, while 26 percent said that of the GOP.

When Kagen won the seat in 2006, it was the most expensive
congressional race in Wisconsin history and was dominated by attack
ads. He won reelection in 2008 with 54 percent, becoming only the
second Democrat ever to win reelection in this district. No Democrat
has won a third term.

Democrats are spending to help Kagen. The DCCC has put about $65,232
in independent expenditures into this race, while the NRCC has spent
about $359,000.

Kagen voted with Democrats on the economic stimulus bill, the
cap-and-trade bill and healthcare reform. Vice President Biden has
campaigned for him.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 12-14. The
survey consisted of 415 phone interviews among likely voters and has a
margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percent.

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 3

– Majority says no “change” under Obama, or change for the worse

– Media has gotten more partisan, likely voters say in poll

– Democrats twice as likely as GOPers to consider their party too extreme

– Pelosi ‘majority makers’ are facing electoral peril
– Only 1-in-4 see American Dream as still there for all
– Voters are not worried about ‘extreme’ label on candidates
– District by district
– Data: The numbers the stories are based on
– Editorial: Election tides

District by
district results

Arizona
Illinois
Mississippi
New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 2

– Voters more likely to see Dems as dominated by extremists
– Independents prefer cutting the deficit to spending on jobs
– Democrats have edge on question of extending Bush tax cuts
– Republicans are up in 8 of 10 open House seats
– After forty Dem years, Obey’s seat in jeopardy
– Majority of voters say they want a viable third party
– District by district
– Data: The numbers the stories are based on
– Editorial: The results so far