District by district – New Hampshire

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Democratic incumbent trails by five

Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.) trails Republican candidate Frank
Guinta by five points, 42 percent to 47, with 9 percent of likely
voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

{mosads}While Shea-Porter leads by eight points among female voters, Guinta
has an even stronger lead among male voters: He wins them by 19 points.

Shea-Porter
has a 45-point lead among young voters, while Guinta has a 15-point
lead among middle-aged voters and leads among older voters by one point.

Guinta is also winning over independents: He gets 44 percent of
their support compared to Shea-Porter’s 38. And 16 percent of
independents say they are undecided.

Shea-Porter has a high unfavorability rating, at 50 percent, while
Guinta’s unfavorables are at 33 percent. However, 20 percent of voters
said they aren’t familiar with Guinta, while only 4 percent said that
of Shea-Porter, who is the first woman to be elected to national office
from New Hampshire.

Republicans lead in voter enthusiasm: Ninety-five percent said they
will definitely vote, while 89 percent of Democrats said the same. And
90 percent of independents say they will definitely vote.

Meanwhile, 40 percent of voters could not give a compelling reason
to vote for Democrats in November, while only 30 percent said the same
of Republicans.

But Shea-Porter is used to tough races. She won in 2006 and 2008 with a little more than 50 percent of the vote.

Republicans are spending heavily to defeat her. The NRCC has spent about $703,000 in independent expenditures in the district.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 9-12. The
survey consisted of 407 phone interviews among likely voters and has a
margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.