The Trail 2016: Smelling victory

by Lisa Hagen - 04/19/16 6:07 PM ET

Welcome to THE TRAIL 2016, your daily rundown from The Hill on all the latest news in the White House, Senate and House races.

Donald Trump is expected to sail to a win in tonight’s critical primary in New York, but the margin of victory might determine how close he is to being able to wrap up the GOP nomination before the GOP convention in July and avoid a contested convention.

Rivals Ted Cruz and John Kasich hope to prevent the GOP front-runner from sweeping the state’s 95 delegates. They’re looking to keep Trump below the 50 percent threshold and reach above 20 percent themselves so they can split the delegates in congressional districts.

For Democrats, Hillary Clinton is also expected to pull off a victory in an effort to blunt the recent momentum of the Bernie Sanders’s campaign.

But the Vermont senator isn’t backing down and is charging ahead beyond New York to future primary contests.

Read more from The Hill’s Jonathan Easley about what to watch for in tonight’s primary contest and check back with us throughout the night for live updates on results, what the candidates have to say and how many delegates will be awarded.

Check back tomorrow for our take on the winners and losers of the night and also for a story from Jonathan Swan about how Trump, if he’s the GOP nominee, would have a difficult time raising enough money for a general election bid.

RACE TO 1600 PENN

BAD FOR THE MIDDLE CLASS: The Hill’s Lisa Hagen reports: Hillary Clinton took aim at GOP hopefuls Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, arguing that the two candidates undermine America’s middle class.

CAMPAIGN UPDATE: The Hill’s Cristina Marcos reports: Donald Trump’s convention manager, Paul Manafort, huddled with House Republicans to provide an update on the campaign’s strategy on the day of the New York primary.

RULES DEBATE: The Hill’s Ben Kamisar reports: Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus is struggling to control an escalating party debate over what rules should govern a contested GOP convention. On Tuesday morning, Priebus briefed House Republicans GOP primary and nominating convention, The Hill’s Scott Wong reports.

DANGER ZONE: The Hill’s Niall Stanage and Amie Parnes report: Anxiety is rising among Democrats ahead of the New York primary, with some fearing the battle between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders has reached a danger zone. Sanders has leveled some of his most biting criticism at Clinton in recent days, stirring passions in the race that insiders say could leave the party divided heading into November’s elections.

BIDEN WEIGHS IN: The Hill’s Sylvan Lane reports: Vice President Joe Biden called the stagnation of middle-class incomes during his White House tenure “a failure” of the American political system and rejected criticism from Bernie Sanders that the Obama administration hasn’t done enough for middle- and working-class Americans.

STILL IN CHARGE: The Hill’s Ben Kamisar reports: Donald Trump’s campaign manager Corey Lewandowski brushed off reports that he’s being sidelined by the addition of high-profile new hires that are well-connected within the Republican world.

ODDS AND ENDS:

NOT THE BIGGEST FAN: The Hill’s Jesse Byrnes reports: Rep. Pete King (R-N.Y.) offered his latest harsh words directed at Ted Cruz, slamming the Texas senator on the day of the New York primary. “Well, first of all, in case anybody gets confused, I’m not endorsing Ted Cruz, I hate Ted Cruz, and I think I’ll take cyanide if he ever got the nomination,” King said.

SNAPCHAT FILTER: The Hill’s Mark Hensch reports: Bernie Sanders’s campaign has purchased Snapchat geofilters top help boost voter turnout among the app’s users in the New York primary.

BIG APPLE BLUES: The Hill’s Harper Neidig reports: Bernie Sanders said restrictions that make it tougher for registered independents to vote in New York’s Democratic primary will hurt his chances in the state.

CLARIFICATION: The Hill’s Jordain Carney reports: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) sought to clarify his comment that he is “increasingly optimistic” the GOP presidential battle would require a second ballot at the convention in July.

POLL POSITION

GOP MARYLAND POLL: The Hill’s Rebecca Savransky reports: Donald Trump has a double-digit lead in Maryland, according to a new Public Policy Polling survey. Trump has 43 percent support, followed by John Kasich with 29 percent and Ted Cruz with 24 percent.

DEM MARYLAND POLL: The Hill’s Lisa Hagen reports: Hillary Clinton holds a commanding double-digit lead over rival Bernie Sanders in Maryland. A new Public Policy Polling survey found that Clinton leads Sanders by 25 points, 58 to 33 percent.

THE DAILY TRUMP

NO FLY ZONE: The Hill’s Melanie Zanona reports: A jet owned by Donald Trump and frequently used on the campaign trail is not currently registered to fly. Registration expired on Jan. 31 and is not in good standing based on Federal Aviation Administration records.

ALMOST ALL IN: The Hill’s Jesse Byrnes reports: Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani explained his less-than-full-throated support of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. Giuliani said that he endorses Trump, but is not part of his campaign.

LAWSUIT: The Hill’s Jesse Byrnes reports: Republican strategist Cheryl Jacobus is suing the Donald Trump and his campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, alleging they defamed her character.

RESIGNATION: The Hill’s Mark Hensch reports: Donald Trump’s national field director, Stuart Jolly, resigned his post, after a staff reorganization two days before.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“And by the way, the so-called Goofy Uncle Joe — if you notice, I beat every Republican in every poll when they thought I was running.”

— Joe Biden, who explained during an interview with CNBC’s John Harwood that he is not a fan of being labeled “Goofy Uncle Joe.”

CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGNS

FEELING HOPEFUL: The Hill’s Mike Lillis reports: Encouraged by the rise of Republican presidential candidates Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, House Democrats have become more hopeful that they can beat the odds and make huge gains in November.

SENATE DEBUT: The Hill’s Sarah Ferris reports: Planned Parenthood’s campaign arm is launching its first attack of the 2016 Senate races with $400,000 worth of TV ads against Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.).

FLORIDA DEBATE: The Hill’s Lisa Hagen reports: Reps. David Jolly (R-Fla.) and Alan Grayson (D-Fla.) agreed to participate in a bipartisan debate ahead of their respective primaries as they both seek the open Florida Senate seat.

BADGER STATE SHOWDOWN: Former Sen. Russ Feingold’s (D-Wis.) campaign launched a new TV ad that touts Feingold’s foreign policy chops and plan to combat the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), according to a release from his campaign. Feingold will square off with Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) in one of the most competitive Senate races this cycle.

MONEY WATCH

SELF-FUNDING RECORD: The Hill’s Jonathan Swan reports: Millionaire wine retailer David Trone has dumped an extra $2.5 million of his own money into the Democratic primary for a Maryland congressional seat, cementing him as the biggest spending House candidate in history. The latest amount adds to the nearly $10 million he’s already thrown into the race.

GOP OPERATION MAJORITY: The Hill’s Ben Kamisar reports: The National Republican Senatorial Committee has begun to reserve almost $28 million in television buys ahead of what’s likely to be a brutal battle over the Senate majority. Reservations include: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada.

DEMS OPERATION MAJORITY: CNN reports: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee reserved $40 million in airtime in five key Senate races as Democrats seek to regain control of the upper chamber. Reservations for the fall include: Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado and Nevada.

WHAT WE ARE WATCHING FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW:

(All times Eastern)

New York holds its Democratic and Republican primaries today. Polls close at 9 p.m.

John Kasich will hold a town hall in Annapolis, Md. at 6 p.m. today.

Bernie Sanders holds a rally at Penn State Recreation Hall at 7 p.m. today.

Hillary Clinton holds a New York primary night party at the Sheraton New York Times Square starting at 8:30 p.m. today. She will also campaign in Philadelphia on Wednesday, with a 4:15 p.m. event with former Attorney General Eric Holder and mothers who have lost their children to gun violence, and a campaign event at 6:30 p.m.

Donald Trump holds an election night event at Trump Tower in Manhattan today at 9 p.m. He will also hold a campaign rally at the Indiana State Fairgrounds in Indianapolis at 3 p.m. and a rally in Berlin, Md. at 7 p.m. on Wednesday.

Ted Cruz holds a campaign event in Philadelphia with Sen. Mike Lee and Carly Fiorina at 7 p.m. today.

TWEET OF THE DAY

CNN has a clock counting down the time until their New York primary coverage begins even as they cover, in real time, the primary

— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) April 19, 2016