The Trail 2016: Sinister plot

by Ben Kamisar - 10/12/16 5:37 PM ET

Welcome to THE TRAIL 2016, your daily rundown from The Hill on all the latest news in the White House, Senate and House races.

Five days after the bombshell release of the “Trump tapes,” it’s not getting any easier for Republicans.

Donald Trump has shown no sign of easing up on his all out war against the GOP establishment, particularly House Speaker Paul Ryan, the man his campaign CEO has long hoped to dethrone, The Hill’s Jonathan Swan says in an exclusive report.

On Wednesday, Trump kept the fires burning by hinting that Ryan might be part of a “sinister deal” because of his refusal to stand by him or congratulate him for his Sunday night debate performance.

The problems are much deeper than rhetoric, as poll numbers continue to show Democrats benefiting from the comments, Trump’s stumbles also present a significant challenge to the GOP’s turnout efforts in key down-ballot races, our own Reid Wilson reports.

Stick with The Hill today and tomorrow for a ton of angles on the endless fallout from the “Trump tapes,” as well as more of the biggest campaign stories.

RACE TO 1600 PENN

CHRISTIAN CRITICISM: Donald Trump’s campaign has hammered Hillary Clinton for new emails released by WikiLeaks showing a 2011 conversation between future staffers making what the campaign believes were “anti-Catholic remarks.”

UTAH UP FOR GRABS: A new poll out of Utah shows Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton tied with presidential longshot Evan McMullin within striking distance. The state typically leans red, but its largest paper continues to shake things up by endorsing Clinton.

DO WE HAVE TO?: The Hill’s Joe Concha reports: Senior Hillary Clinton aide Huma Abedin argued to top staffers that Clinton should consider not taking questions from the press for fear of overshadowing her presidential campaign’s message, according to emails released by WikiLeaks.

FORGIVE AND FORGET: The Hill’s Ben Kamisar reports: Mike Pence turned to his faith Wednesday when defending Donald Trump, telling students at a Christian university that the Republican presidential nominee should be forgiven for his vulgar remarks about women.

MUSLIM AMERICANS AGAINST TRUMP: The Hill’s Mark Hensch reports: Muslim American women opposed to Donald Trump have launched a new political action committee aimed at boosting voter turnout among U.S. Muslims. Ghazala Khan, the mother of a U.S. soldier killed in Iraq whose family spoke out against Trump during the Democratic National Committee, has joined the group.

CORRUPT: The Hill’s Ben Kamisar reports: The Trump campaign’s new ad hits Hillary Clinton for “pay-to-play.”

ODDS AND ENDS

ON SECOND THOUGHT: The Hill’s Jordain Carney reports: After Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) called on Donald Trump to drop out of the presidential race, he admitted he’d likely vote for Trump in November.

NOT A FAN: The Hill’s Jordain Carney reports: Jeff Flake, the Arizona GOP senator who has refused to back Donald Trump, criticized his pledge to put Hillary Clinton in jail if he wins the election.

WHUPS: The Hill’s Nikita Vladimirov reports: Ted Yoho, a GOP congressman from Florida, incorrectly said that the controversial Donald Trump comments from 2005 took place “in a locker room” when they in fact took place ahead of an interview with Access Hollywood. Trump has since tried to downplay the comments by arguing they were “locker room talk.”

DONE: The Hill’s Lisa Hagen reports: The president of the Iowa Federation of Republican Women is stepping down, saying she is unable to support GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump.

THE FINAL MELTDOWN: The Hill’s Tim Devaney reports: Hillary Clinton’s campaign is needling Donald Trump with a new 80’s-themed video spinning off the song “The Final Countdown.”

ELECTOR SANS FAITH: Politico reports: One Electoral College elector is floating refusing to cast his vote for Hillary Clinton if she wins his state of Washington, which would be against the state’s law.

POLL POSITION

TRUMP TRAILING ACROSS BOARD: The Hill’s Caitlin Yilek reports: Donald Trump is now trailing in every recent major poll after he fell behind Hillary Clinton in the Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California poll. Clinton’s lead has swelled to 8 points in Reuters/Ipsos’ new poll.

SHOW ME A TRUMP LEAD: The HIll’s Nikita Vladimirov reports: Donald Trump leads by 5 points in a new poll of Missouri, while GOP Sen. Roy Blunt’s lead slips to just 2 points over Democrat Jason Kander.

MIDWEST SUCCESS: The Hill’s Lisa Hagen reports: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 7 points in Wisconsin, according to a new poll that found former Sen. Russ Feingold with a 2 point lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson.

CLINTON UP BIG IN OHIO: The Hill’s Mark Hensch reports: Hillary Clinton’s lead in Ohio is at 9 points in a new poll.

THE DAILY TRUMP

THE WHOLE THING IS RIGGED: The Hill’s Harper Neidig reports: Donald Trump hammered the Commission on Presidential Debates as rigged because one of its co-chairs used to work in President Bill Clinton’s White House. The group’s other co-chair is a former Republican National Committee chairman.

THE TOM BRADY ANGLE: The Hill’s Mark Hensch reports: New England Patriots’ star quarterback Tom Brady, who has referred to Donald Trump as a friend, wouldn’t comment on the recent controversy over audio where Trump talks groping women without consent. Trump has described the comments as “locker room talk.”

NOT GOOD: Buzzfeed reports: Four former teen beauty pageant contestants have accused Donald Trump of walking into the dressing room while they were changing in 1997, although others have disputed that accusation.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“We want the support of anybody who’s going to publicly endorse us, but enough of the pussyfooting around in terms of do you support us or do you not support us.”

—Kellyanne Conway, Donald Trump’s campaign manager, about Republicans weighing whether to continue to support the nominee.

CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGNS

ACTUALLY:The Hill’s Nikita Vladimirov reports: Colorado Republican Senate candidate Darryl Glenn, an early Trump supporter who called on him to step down after the controversial comments, is now back in Trump’s corner.

DEMS SITTING PRETTY: The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports: Democrats believe that Senate control is safely within their grasp as Republican turmoil continues in the aftermath of the “Trump tapes” release. They’ve spent the past few days hammering Republicans on the issue, particularly those who haven’t withdrawn their endorsement.

NEW HAMPSHIRE, NEW DEBATE: Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte and Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan will square off later this month in a newly announced debate where half of the questions will be pulled from New Hampshire residents, via a release. It will be a pivotal debate just weeks before Election Day and after Ayotte opened herself up to criticism last debate for describing Donald Trump as a role model.

MONEY WATCH

ARE ALL SALES FINAL?: NBC News reports: A handful of GOP donors want their donations to Donald Trump’s campaign refunded after the candidate’s lewd comments became public.

SHOW ME THE MONEY: The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports: Democrat Jason Kander outraised Republican Sen. Roy Blunt in the most recent fundraising quarter as Democrats up their investment in the state.

WHAT WE ARE WATCHING FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW

(All times Eastern)

Hillary Clinton will spend Wednesday night campaigning with Nevada Democratic Senate candidate in Las Vegas at 10:30 p.m. She’ll be off the trail Thursday to fundraise, but Michelle Obama will campaign for her in New Hampshire at 12:15, Vice President Joe Biden will hold a Las Vegas rally at 3:45, and Bill Clinton will hold two Iowa early vote events.

Donald Trump will head to West Palm Beach, Fla. for a noon rally before heading to Cincinnati to speak at a 7:30 p.m. rally.

Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) and former state Rep. Deborah Ross (D-N.C.) will square off in a debate ahead of their election at 7 p.m. Thursday.

TWEET OF THE DAY

If McMullin wins a Utah and no one makes it to 270 House delegations will be allowed to vote for him, per 12th Amend https://t.co/gJ9Lg4J4MH

— Ed Demaria (@Ed_Demaria) October 12, 2016