Republicans might not know Ariz. House nominee for days, thanks to close contest

Republicans likely won’t know their candidate to take on Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.) for at least several days, and perhaps even longer.

{mosads}On Wednesday morning, the GOP primary in Arizona’s 1st District was still too close to call, with Arizona Speaker Andy Tobin leading the pack by just 532 votes, or 36.2 percent of the vote, and rancher Gary Kiehne coming in second with 35 percent support, per The Associated Press. State Rep. Adam Kwasman took third with 28.8 percent.

Tobin and Kiehne each traded slim leads late into Tuesday night as ballots came in across the sprawling district.

But as of Wednesday morning, votes in a handful of precincts were still out, and provisional and early ballots turned in on Election Day had yet to be counted — which one national Republican source on the ground in the district estimates could amount to 2,500 to 3,000 votes.

Counting those ballots is expected to take at least until the end of the week, and depending on the final margin, the race could head to a recount.

Arizona election law triggers an automatic recount if the win margin is within a tenth of a percentage point of the total votes earned by the top-two finishers. Currently Tobin’s lead is bigger than that, but Arizona political observers expect the final tally to shift.

National Republicans have privately expressed optimism that Tobin has enough of a lead to eke out a win after all is said and done, but they admit the outcome of the race is difficult to predict. 

—This piece was updated at 4 p.m. to correct Arizona election law.